Port Container Throughput Prediction Methods

Different economic theory produces different economic forecasting method. Every method has its own features and merits as well as limits. It's difficult therefore to make an economic forecasting, even an economic index. It should be the direction of economic forecasting research that to synthesize the forecasting methods actively.The forecasting of marine container throughput belongs to economic forecasting, which has many forecasting methods. This paper introduces two major prediction techniques, i.e. triple exponential smoothing prediction technique and gray prediction technique, and explains each technique's algorism and model construction in detail. By the combination of the above two method, the writer makes up the forecasting model of container throughput in Shanghai Port and forecasts the container throughput of near future. This would be the key content of the paper.The writer makes some efforts in this paper as follows:1. the weight coefficient of the triple exponential smoothing prediction technique2. putting forward H(0)tt-GM(1,1) model of time sequence error according to the influence of x(0)-GM(1,1) model precision by time sequence error, H(0)tt-GM(1,1) and x(0)-GM(1,1) models are used to test model precision and forecast.3. Setting up a combined forecasting optimal model whose objective function is the effectiveness indicator of the forecasting method in order to calculate the weight coefficient of the combined forecasting method. Then, based on the analysis of the combined forecasting precision sequence, the paper simplifies the model mentioned above, and gets an optimal model for calculating the approximate solution of the combined forecasting method, which is only a combination of two forecasting methods, and obtains thecalculating formula of the optimal approximate solution.SHEN MIN (Transportation Program and Management)Directed by SONG BING LIANG...