| In recent years,our country’s urbanization has entered an era of rapid development,which is reflected by the city has achieved certain achievements in various parts in the society.Meanwhile,urban development is faced with resourse constraints,unordered expansion,farmland occupation,environmental pollution and other practical problems.The development pattern at the cost of ecological resources is no longer suitable to today’s society,and it is urgent to strengthen the control and guidance of urban development to promote the scientific development of cities and towns.For this reason,the state has put forward the division of suitable construction areas and forbidden construction areas for urban development in the master planning and land use planning,so as to achieve the purpose of effective management of land resources.However,due to the decentralization of the compilation power of various types of planning,different types of planning have different standards for the suitability of urban construction,leading to frequent conflicts of "multiple plans".After the establishment of land spatial planning system in the new era,the urban development boundary,as the boundary of concentrated urban construction in a certain period,is of great significance for the orderly development and scientific control of cities and towns in the future.When the urban growth boundary was introduced into China at 2000 for the first time,the research and practice on the demarcation of urban growth boundary,urban development boundary and urban development boundary have been deepening continuously,and various spatial planning experimental sites and experts and scholars have put forward many opinions and suggestions on the demarcation of urban growth boundary.However,most of the existing boundary demarcation methods only carry out a simple land suitability evaluation for the study area,and do not integrate the "double evaluation" work of territorial spatial planning into the boundary demarcation work.Moreover,the model used for future urban land use simulation fails to well represent the conversion of urban land,and the one-time demarcation of the boundary also lacks the consideration of rigid control and elastic adjustment.Therefore,this research choose Foshan city in Guangdong province which development level is higher and environmental protection work is outstanding as reasearch region,based on the "double evaluation" work as the space of the urban land expansion,moreover through the analysis of influence factors over the town,foshan city land use change,using a MCCA model of mixed pixels of foshan city in 2035,to simulate the land use scale and border town,foshan city development,build a method based on "double evaluation" and MCCA model which for delimitating the town development of rigid and elastic boundary.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of urban land use change and its influencing factors in Foshan.The results show that the proportion of urban land is not high,cropland and ecological land is the main land use types in Foshan city.From 2000 to 2018,urban land in foshan city growth slowed,urban land use extension type from relatively straightforward scatter model extended to more constraint borderline and filling type extension,town land spatial layout is gradually stable.In the part of influence factors exploring,selecting natural environment,location traffic and social economic as influence factor,using the geographical detectors to probe urban development mechanism.The results show that the regional transportation and social economy from 2000 to 2015 has been the main influencing factors of land use change,and both GDP and traffic road network density produced by the interaction with urban land use change has a significant correlation.(2)Evaluation and analysis of urban construction suitability and carrying capacity.According to the requirements of Technical Guidelines for the Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity and Suitability of Territorial Space Development in Guangdong Province(Trial),using network analysis and In VEST model and other methods,analyzign the suitability and carrying capacity of urban construction in Foshan City.From the analysis results,the overall urban construction conditions of Foshan City is better,nearly 80%of the city’s area is located in the urban construction suitable areas,and the suitable areas are relatively contiguous,which is conducive to the development of urban agglomeration.Meanwhile,the area of ecological protection zone area is not small,very important areas are mainly distributed in the forest land of Gaoming district,so there is no conflict for urban development construction.However,the future urban development still should consider the importance of ecological plaque protection,to avoid high conservation value area,and geological hazard rates.(3)Land use simulation based on MCCA model.Combined with the results of impact factor analysis and "double evaluation" in the previous chapter,using Markov model and MCCA model based on mixed pixels to realize the simulation of land use in Foshan in 2035.The analysis results show that the land use types in Foshan will change significantly in 2035.Except for urban land use,the area of cultivated land,water area and other land use types will decrease to different degrees,while the urban land use will increase by 33.16% compared with 2015,with a significant increase.From the perspective of space,the reduced patches of cultivated land and water area are mainly concentrated in Shunde District,Nanhai District and Sanshui District of Foshan City,while the urban land area expands to the northwest,southwest and southeast around the central city.(4)Urban development boundary demarcation.Based on the previous simulation results,the urban space of Foshan in 2035 was divided by referring to the identification method of "product-oriented space",the urban space is divided into urban concentrated construction area,urban elastic development area and other use area.Meanwhile,the rigid and elastic boundaries of urban development were defined according to the spatial types.The results show that the area restricted by the rigid boundary of urban development in Foshan accounts for 35.11% of the total area in 2035,among which Chancheng District has the highest proportion of urban land area,and Nanhai District and Shunde District have the largest elastic adjustment area. |
