In recent years,the traditional automobile industry has developed rapidly,which has led to serious energy crisis,environmental pollution and other issues.In this context,the world is actively promoting and developing environmental protection,green and energy-saving new energy vehicles.However,there are some problems in the development of domestic new energy vehicles,such as insufficient market promotion and low penetration rate,which lead to the increasing risk of overcapacity of new energy vehicles.In the wave of overcapacity,it is worth exploring whether the new energy vehicle industry is spared.Therefore,first uses the production function method as a tool and takes China’s new energy industry as the research object to calculate the capacity utilization rate of China’s new energy vehicle industry,and then reveals the non-linear influence distribution characteristics of various economic variables on the development of new energy vehicle industry through quantile regression method,Finally,according to the conclusions,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.First,measure the capacity utilization rate of China’s new energy automobile industry.This paper measures the capacity utilization of new energy vehicles industry in the whole country and provinces based on Cobb Douglas production function in the production function method.The output of new energy vehicles is selected as the output index,and the number of practitioners and fixed assets input are used as the labor input and capital input index of the enterprise.The results show that:(1)in terms of the whole country,the capacity utilization level of China’s new energy automobile industry in 2010-2017 shows a significant "U" type change trend,which is decreasing first and then rising,but the linear fitting trend of capacity utilization rate is rising.Since 2012,China’s new energy vehicle industry has shown a relatively serious stage overcapacity,but the level of overcapacity is gradually reducing,and in2018,the new energy vehicle market in China entered the normal production stage.(2)In terms of different regions,the utilization level of new energy automobile industry in China from 2010 to 2018 has obvious regional differences.The overall distribution features are: the utilization rate of capacity from east to west is gradually reduced,the utilization rate of capacity in central,Western and northeast areas is relatively low,and there is serious overcapacity,while the utilization rate of capacity in the eastern coastal areas is relatively high,There is a certain degree of insufficient capacity.Secondly,the distribution characteristics of the nonlinear influence of economic variables on the development of new energy automobile industry are revealed.This paper selects panel data from 2010 to 2018 in 27 provinces of China,and empirically analyzes the influence of various factors on the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry by using the nonlinear quantile regression model.The nonlinear quantile regression model can reveal the nonlinear influence and distribution characteristics of independent variables on dependent variables.The empirical results show that:(1)The investment in fixed assets,the number of employees and the central financial subsidies all have an inverted "U" type nonlinear impact on the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry,that is,there are the best advantages to make the industry achieve the best development,and the later promotion role disappears,which needs the attention of the government and enterprises.(2)The gasoline price and the consumer price index have negative "n" and "n" nonlinear effects respectively.In the medium term,gasoline price plays a limited role in promoting industrial development,and the consumption level of residents affects consumers’ purchase of new energy vehicles to a large extent.(3)The industrial sales value and tax policy support have positive and linear effects on the development of new energy automobile industry in China,and have been playing a significant role in promoting.Finally,according to the conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions to promote the sustainable development of China’s new energy vehicle industry from the perspectives of government,enterprises and consumers. |