Simulation Study On Crowd Evacuation And Risk Analysis Of Terrorist Attack In Subway Station

In recent years,terrorist attacks have occurred frequently,resulting in a large number of casualties and property losses,and hence they are certain challenges to social stability and public security.The situation of counter-terrorism is still heavy for our country due to the infiltration of foreign terrorist forces and the influence of domestic extremist forces.The subway,as an important infrastructure of urban transportation,has a complex spatial structure and dense population.As a result,the loss will be huge when a terrorist attack occurs.Therefore,it is of significant interest for the research on the subway terrorist attack risk assessment and crowd evacuation simulation in theoretical aspect and application.In this paper,the Bayesian network risk analysis model for terrorist attacks in subway stations has been made.The simulation of crowd evacuation in the case of terrorist attacks has been studied,and the factors that affect crowd evacuation have been analysed.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Based on the Bayesian network,using GeNIe modeling software,a terrorist attack risk analysis model for subway stations is established.The risk status of subway stations under different attack methods such as explosions,slashing,arson,poisonous gas,and shooting is studied.The effects of the three security methods of,physical protection,personnel protection and technical protection on attacks are analysed in depth.The results show that the main loopholes in the failure of the protection against terrorist attacks are the factors of personnel protection,and the main factors of the failure of personnel protection are the emergency plans and drills;technical protection is the most effective link in the protection of terrorist attacks;Toxic gas is the most difficult to defend against and poses the highest level of risk in terrorist attacks.The simulation results can provide a certain reference for the safety assessment and security arrangement of subway stations.The analysis results can provide a certain reference for the safety assessment and security strategies of subway stations.(2)Taking a subway station in Beijing as an example,the Anylogic dynamic simulation software based on the social force model is used to simulate the law of death and injury of people attacked by explosions and slashes.The simulation results show that the power of bomb explosions increases with the increase of explosive dose and crowd density.Small bombs such as human body bombs and suitcase bombs have the largest number of serious injuries,and large bombs such as suitcase bombs have the largest number of minor injuries;Density has a small effect on knife,axe,and slash attacks.When the density is low,the attack efficiency of chopper-type attack tools is higher.When the density is high,the efficiency of machete attack tools is higher.(3)The simulation of crowd evacuation in subway station scenes under the interference of different factors is conducted to study the impact of different factors such as operating period,evacuation guidance,hardware facilities,emergency passages,gate delays,etc.on the crowd evacuation under emergency conditions.The number of gates on evacuation impact is analysed in detail.The simulation results show that factors such as evacuation guidance,emergency passages,and gates swiping cards have the most significant influence on the evacuation efficiency.Among them,the increase in the number of gates has a marginal decreasing law for the change of evacuation efficiency.The simulation results can provide certain reference interest for the safety assessment and the evacuation of people in subway stations.