Research On The Intelligent Dispatch Method Of County Urban-rural Bus Service

With the rapid construction of new-type urbanization and new socialist countryside,it is necessary to put forward higher requirements for coordinated development and public resources’ reasonable allocation in urban-rural areas.Under this situation,research on intelligent dispatch methods of county urban-rural bus service can better respond to national strategies and policies.This thesis has theoretical significance and practical value in promoting the equalization of public services and two-way flow of different elements in urban-rural areas.Based on the development environment and characteristics of county urban-rural bus,urban-rural bus lines are divided into express line,trunk line and branch line,and the evolution mechanism of urban-rural bus network is analyzed.This thesis discusses the travel characteristics of urban-rural residents including travel structure,travel purpose,travel mode and travel frequency.According to the monthly distribution,weekly distribution and daily distribution,characteristics of urban-rural bus passengers are expounded.In addition,the spatial distribution characteristics of passenger flow are revealed and the necessity of intelligent dispatch of county urban-rural bus is defined,thus establishing the basic framework of intelligent dispatch.The thesis presents a method to determine passenger boarding and alighting scale according to the data mining technology and multi-source data,comprehensively considering characteristics of urban-rural bus passengers,trip chain pattern,transfer capacity of stations and land using nature.In view of the complexity,variability and periodicity of the urban-rural bus passenger flow,several nonlinear prediction models are proposed and compared which takes history passenger flow,weather conditions,temperature changes and holidays as input parameters.Based on the analyses of neural network including network structure,parameter selection,training method and evaluation standard,the basic process of urban-rural passenger flow forecast is established.Based on the planning idea of ‘express and trunk priority,hierarchical formulation,coordination and unification,dynamic adjustment’,combined with passenger flow information extraction and forecast technology,the static coordinated dispatch method of county urban-rural bus service is proposed from three aspects: running time bands division,vehicle configuration and timetable determination.In running time bands division,considering the passenger demand of express and branch line,the ordinal samples cluster method is proposed.Passenger capacity,load rate,congestion degree and section passenger flow are considered in the express line vehicle configuration.In addition,‘the coordination of trunk and branch,coldness and hotness’ of county urbanrural trunk and branch line vehicle allocation model is formulated.Based on the establishment of an optimized bus headway model,the formulation process of bus departure mode and bus timetable is discussed.The classification of abnormal events in the urban-rural bus operation are summarized.In addition,based on multi-source historical data,real-time dynamic data and passenger demand forecast data,a monitoring method for abnormal passenger flow and vehicle operation in urban-rural bus service is proposed.It mainly covers passenger demand pre-alarming,single-point abnormal passenger flow,multi-point abnormal passenger flow,station distance anomaly and operation speed anomaly.The thesis analyzes the dynamic dispatch strategies systematically and its usability.The urbanrural bus dynamic dispatch and information release system is constructed according to the identification technology of abnormal events and urban-rural bus passengers’ travel demand.