Research On The Prediction Of Residents’ Commuting Mode Choice Based On The Urban Shared Transportation

Commuting,as the most important basic travel in a city,has the characteristics of spacetime concentration and periodic reciprocation,which puts forward a great challenge to the urban transportation supply,and is also a concentrated expression of the contradiction between urban transportation supply and demand.With the expansion and development of the city,the degree of separation between occupation and residence is gradually deepened,the average commuting distance is also growing,the dependence of the motorized transportation mode is increasing,and the commuting demand is also diversified and personalized.As a result,a series of problems such as severe traffic congestion,environmental pollution,and poor commuting experience have caused huge problems to residents’ daily life and the development of urban and society.It has become a severe traffic problem commonly faced worldwide.Many cities in many countries are actively seeking the ice breaking point to solve commuting problems.However,in recent years,the rise of urban shared transportation has injected new vitality into the urban commuting traffic deadlock,gradually occupying an important position in urban commuting,and its impact has stabilized.What’s more,under the new normal state of territorial space planning,the institutional barriers have been broken,and the links and interactions between urban land use,spatial layout and transportation planning have been strengthened,providing the possibility to solve urban commuting problems from the root.Based on this special background of traffic development,research on the choice of commuting mode is conducted.Firstly,through literature reading and public industry data sorting,this paper determines the definition and connotation of shared transportation,and makes clear that the research object of shared traffic mode in this paper is: shared bicycle and online car Hailing.Then,based on industry statistics,the development status of shared transportation is analyzed,and it can be concluded that the development of shared transportation has initially shown maturity,and its impact on urban commuting travel tends to be stable.Secondly,combining revealed preference method(RP)and stated preference method(SP),A survey questionnaire is designed to obtain the current situation of urban residents commuting trips considering shared transportation modes.Based on the survey results,the main influencing factors of commuting choices of urban residents are analyzed.Then the competitive and cooperative relationships between shared transportation modes and traditional commuting modes are discussed.A comprehensive commuting cost utility function based on commuting cost and time is proposed to study the conversion mechanism between the shared bicycle and the bus,private bicycle and electric bicycle.At the same time,the impact of shared transportation on commuting mode structure change and commuting mode change is analyzed with survey data.Subsequently,select the appropriate independent variables(influencing factors)and a Mixed Logit Model including panel data for commuting trip choice prediction considering shared transportation modes is established.This model takes fully consideration of the characteristics of commuting purpose travel and the difference between the commuting for work and the commuting to home in one day for one person.It also considers the individual differences among commuters.The survey data of commuting trip in Qilin high-tech Zone in Nanjing is used to calibrate the model,a case study is carried out in the meantime.Follow by a discussion about significant influence factors of commuting mode choice and the role of shared transportation according to the model results.Finally,based on the research results of the thesis,taking the different stages of urban traffic development as the context,the current situation of urban commuting transportation,the optimization of urban commuting mode structure in the medium term,the commuting transportation development strategy based on urban spatial layout and land use in the long-term period.To achieve the overall organic coordination and efficient development of the city.