Study On The Social And Economics Impacts Analysis And Prediction Of Sichuan-tibet Railway On Tibet

On both the building and planning of five in and out of channels,the Tibetan,yunnan Tibet,xining to changdu and new Tibetan railway is contacted by northwest and southwest region,which are remote and underdeveloped in C hina.S ichuan-Tibet Railway connects the chengdu-chongqing economic zone and the Yangtze river economic belt,and radiates maritime silk road.The railway attracts about 259×10~4 km~2 and influences about 800 million people.In the lines accessing to the Tibet,Sichuan-Tibet Railway attracts the most population and the high-speed trains are only available.The completion of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will put an end to the history of no railway in the vast western sichuan plateau and southeast Tibet,and formming another corridor into Tibet.At the sixth work conference on Tibet,President Xi Jinping called for all-out efforts to promote economic and social development and long-term peace and stability in Tibet.The Sichuan-Tibet Railway is of great significance to greatly improve Tibet’s external traffic environment,enhance its capacity for self-development,implement the spirit of the sixth Tibet work conference of the central committee,and implement China’s medium-long term railway network plan.This paper studied the socio-economic impact of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway on Tibet,and the main contents are as follows:Firstly,by useing the relative development rate inde x and factor analysis,a comprehensive evaluation of the economic development of the cities along the Sichuan-Tibet railway was made,and the economic differences of the regions along the railway were compared,the development potential of the cities was also discussed.The correlation between transportation level and economic development in Tibet was quantitatively evaluated by grey relational degree model.The results show that railway transportation has a far-reaching impact on the economic development of Tibet,and csn boost the regional GDP and promot the development of secondary and tertiary industries.Secondly,based on the national conditions of C hina and the development characteristics of Tibet,the evaluation index system of the impact of Sichuan-Tibet railway on the social and economic development of Tibet was constructed,and the analysis was carried out from the three aspects of tourism,industrial structure and employment.In terms of tourism,the present situation of tourism development and the domestic and foreign tourists condition in Tibet were analyzed by using the geographical concentration index,the degree of affinity and the regression model,and the influence of the Sichuan-Tibet railway on the tourism in Tibet was predicted.In terms of the industria l structure,the current situation of the industrial structure in Tibet was analyzed.by using the"with or without comparison method"and the grey prediction method,the impact of the railway construction projects on the industrial structure in Tibet was discussed.and the impact of the Sichuan-Tibet railway on the economic and industrial development in Tibet was also predicted.In terms of employment,the grey prediction method and the"with o r without comparison method"were used to compare and analyze the number of total employees and the number of employees in various industries in Tibet since the opening of Q inghai-Tibet Railway,the employment effect of railway construction projects on Tibet was discussed,and the impact of the S ichuan-Tibet Railway on the employment was predicted.Thirdly,the medium-long term forecasting model of railway passenger volume was put forward.The medium-long term ridership system does not developed independently,O n the contrary,the system is closely related to the social and economic development,so it is of more practical significance to consider the prediction model with multiple variables.For multivariate grey MGM(1,n)model,the establishment of the model and the processing of the data were considered,the background value of the model were modified,the sequence of variable weight buffer operators was introduced,inverter power buffer operator sequence was also proposed.Based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm,the average relative error between the predicted value and the actual value was minimized to optimize the weight coefficient of the background value and the buffer weight coefficient,which greatly improved the prediction accuracy.In order to extend the number of forecast periods,an equal-dimension new model and residual correction model were introduced to realize the long-term forecasting of passenger volume.Finally,two models of parameter optimization MGM(1,n)model based on particle swarm optimization algorithm and residual correction MGM(1,n)model based on variable weight buffering were proposed.Based on the two models,the railway passenger volume in Tibet was predicted,and the forecasting results can provide reference for the construction planning of Sichuan-Tibet Railway,which is an important basis for analyzing the significance of Sichuan-Tibet railway construction.Finally,based on the current situation of the railway network and passenger flow along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,the annual passenger volume of Sichuan-Tibet Railway was forecasted,the competitiveness of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is analyzed,and the contribution of Sichuan-Tibet Railway to the future economic development of Tibet was also discussed.The research results of this paper hope to provide reference for the S ichuan-Tibet region to make good use of Sichuan-Tibet Railway to give full play to its resource advantages and make a good regional long-term development plan.