Power Consumption Characteristics And Medium And Long Term Electricity Forecasting Based On Economic Development Stage

From the perspective of economic development in developed countries,the economic development in a country or region can usually be divided into several different stages according to certain standards and methods.In different stages of economic development,the main economic indicators and the characteristics of electricity use have different statistical laws.At present,China’s economic development has entered the "new normal",from the original high-speed growth to the middle and low speed growth stage,and the future mid and long-term electricity demand growth will also change.Therefore,in order to support the healthy development of our economy in the future,it is very important to study the medium and long term electricity demand forecasting models suitable for different economic stages in China,so as to accurately predict the electricity demand in the future economic development stage.This paper first summarizes and analyzes the main characteristics of developed countries in different stages of economic development,and statistically analyzes the main characteristics of different economic stages in China.It is found that the law of development in the different economic stages of China basically conforms to the laws of the developed countries,but also has its own characteristics.Secondly,the general rule of electricity consumption in different regions of China is summed up,and the new influence on the electricity consumption characteristics is analyzed in detail according to the development of energy Internet and smart grid.Based on the LMDI theory,the influence factors of electricity demand are decomposed into scale,structure and efficiency effects.The structural effect and efficiency effect are the main factors for the decline of electricity demand after the middle stage of industrialization.Then this paper uses the theory of econometrics research found that electricity demand and GDP,exports,investment in fixed assets,total energy consumption,the proportion of the second industry,the proportion of the third industry and technological progress,technological innovation,energy consumption per unit of output,electric power consumption per unit output value and other indicators have correlation,and there is a long-term cointegration and Granger causality relationship between electricity demand and GDP,level of consumption and total energy consumption.On this basis,the basic idea of forecasting the power demand in different stages of economic development is put forward,and the power demand forecasting model is established by using system dynamics.Solow model and Logistic model theory.The validity test of the model shows that the Logistic model is more reasonable compared with the extended Solow model.Finally.taking A area as an example,empirical analysis is carried out,and long-term electricity consumption is forecasted.