Survival Life Estimation Model And Analysis For Curve Rail

As one of the important components of rail transit,the safe operation and economic benefits of the railway system will be threaten seriously when the damage of track exceeds the allowable threshold.Although various road bureaus have formulated effective maintenance and repair strategies for rails,there are still serious injuries that cannot be detected and handled in time.Especially in mountain railways,due to the small radius of the line design curve and the poor geological and climatic conditions in the environment,the frequency of rail diseases is higher and the damage forms are more complex and diverse.When the train passes a small radius curve track,the impact of wheel and rail and various risk factors in the rail service environment will further increase the incidence of rail damage.Under this context,analyzing the impact of various risk factors on the actual deterioration process of the rails,predicting the service life of the rails to select the appropriate rail replacement timing,and realizing the status repair of the rails for the rails with small radius curves,which is conducive to the dual control of the operating safety and maintenance costs of railways in mountainous areas in China.In this paper,with the background of the main railway line in the southwest railway bureau,the status census results and maintenance records of the rails in service are sorted out,and the service life assessment of curved rails with a radius of less than 1200 m is studied.First of all,the research method is based on the characteristics of the deterioration of the rail status.Taking into account the complexity and change of the actual service environment of the mountain railway,the rail is subdivided into smaller grid cells according to the actual track information according to the actual track information which is combined with the idea of the rail grid management method to keep the key risk factors in the grid consistent,integrate the relevant status data of each rail grid unit according to the mileage information,and then personally model of rail service life at different spatial locations.Secondly,the survival analysis method is used in the assessment of the survival life of rails with small-radius curves.An AFT model(Accelerated Failure Time Model)is established based on the historical status information of the rails.On the basis of considering the deterioration characteristics of the status of rails,dividing the status in each grid cell according to the fatigue damage and measured wear.Then the fatigue damage life prediction model and the wear life prediction model are constructed.By comparing different risk functions that describe the occurrence rules of rail damage,the Weibull distribution is found to be the best for the actual damage distribution.Finally,the model verification was carried out by taking the curved section of rails within the range of K159 + 000 ～ K750 + 000 in a mountainous area as a research object.The author integrates the historical inspection data of rail damage and wear of each grid unit and related line information,and then completes the quantitative analysis of the impact of different risk factors on rail serious injury events and the fatigue damage life and wear life of the rail Prediction based on the constructed rail service life assessment model.By comparing the evaluation results of the analysis model with the actual service life of the rails,it is found that the accuracy of the prediction results meets the management requirements of the railway system for risk control.The analysis results confirm the effectiveness of the method in this paper.