Analysis On The Periodic Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Rail Transit Development In National Central Cities

The national central city is the core city of the national urban system,which plays an important central and pivotal role in China’s finance,administration,culture and transportation.Urban rail transit network is an important support for the development of national central cities.Although the characteristics and laws of rail transit development in different national central cities are different,they still follow certain laws.This paper uses the life cycle theory to analyze the development characteristics and influencing factors of nine national central cities,in order to seek the regular characteristics of the development of national central cities in theory,provide decision-making basis for governments at all levels to formulate effective urban rail transit development strategies,and promote the construction of National Central Urban Rail transit scientifically and healthily.First of all,the development characteristics of national central city rail transit are analyzed periodically.According to the applicable conditions of growth curve model,logistic model and Gompertz model are selected to fit the mileage of national central urban rail transit.Through fitting analysis,the growth curve model of rail transit development in central cities of each country is obtained.Through parameter analysis,the periodic characteristics of rail transit development in national central cities are obtained.Based on the inflection point analysis,the development of national central urban rail transit is divided into two categories: stable stage and development stage.Then,the development mileage of national central city rail transit is predicted.Taking Beijing in the stable stage and Chongqing in the development stage as examples,the growth curve model and catastrophe theory model are used to predict the development mileage of urban rail transit.By comparing and analyzing the predicted results,it is found that the mileage continues to rise on the basis of the normal growth of mutation growth,and there is still a gap between the predicted results and the planned value of urban rail transit construction,and the impact of external factors on the development of urban rail transit mileage needs to be considered.Finally,the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the development of national central city rail transit.On the basis of determining the three influencing factors of population,GDP and passenger flow,this paper also takes Beijing and Chongqing as examples,draws three-dimensional color mapping surface map of influencing factors in different development stages of National Central Urban Rail Transit with Kriging model,and analyzes the influence of each influencing factor in different development stages on the development of national central urban rail transit.The results show that population is the key factor to promote the development of rail transit,the growth of GDP promotes the development of rail transit,and the increase of passenger flow is not fully linear with the new operating mileage.