Research On The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Automobile Consumer Demand

In the rapid growth of China’s economy for decades,the automobile industry as a pillar industry can be said to have contributed.However,in recent years,China’s automobile market has begun to fall into a bottleneck.The annual growth rate of sales is declining year by year,and even fell to a negative value for the first time in 2018,and it has continued to this day.As the pillar industry of my country’s national economy,the automobile industry has not only reflected the rapid decline in automobile consumption demand,but also heralded the coming of a cold winter in the automobile industry,which may seriously affect the sustained and healthy development of my country’s economy.There are many factors that can affect automobile consumption demand,such as income,car prices,population size,etc.However,from the development of the automobile industry in various countries in the world,as well as a large number of research results in population economics,the population structure,especially the age structure A crucial factor.As an important factor in economic activities with both producer and consumer attributes,population determines that the change in the age structure of the population will definitely affect the consumption demand of various commodities in the economic system.First of all,this article collates and analyzes the relevant domestic and foreign literature on population age structure and automobile consumption,and summarizes the two paths that the population age structure affects automobile consumption demand,transportation demand and national economic level: on the one hand,the increase in the total dependency ratio inhibits In addition,the residents’ transportation needs have been suppressed,thereby inhibiting car consumption;moreover,due to the need to invest in the future education of children and guarantee the higher consumption of old age brought about by the extended life of the elderly,residents’ preventive savings will become more If it is high,consumption will be relatively insufficient,which further restrains residents’ transportation consumption and reduces automobile consumption.On the other hand,the increase in the total dependency ratio has led to a decline in the proportion of the working-age population or even the absolute number,and the supply of labor is insufficient;the aging of the population also reduces the speed at which the entire society absorbs new knowledge and new ideas and inhibits technological innovation capabilities,which will affect economic development.Produce negative shocks and reduce the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy.The level of national economic development is the most direct factor that affects the demand for automobile consumption,and the two are often highly positively correlated.Therefore,the hindrance of economic development will definitely have a large degree of negative impact on automobile consumption demand.Secondly,this article refers to previous theoretical models and introduces the two demographic factors of the old age dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio based on their theories,and constructs a more consistent measurement of the relationship between the population age structure and automobile consumption demand.The mathematical model of,from the perspective of qualitative research,clarifies the mechanism of the relationship between the two.The results show that from a short-term static perspective,the increase in the old-age dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio will jointly lead to a decline in the demand for automotive industrial products.Then,this paper uses China’s provincial panel data from 2002 to 2018 to empirically test the specific impact of the population’s age structure on the demand for automobile consumption using the mediation effect model,SYS-GMM,DIF-GMM,and sub-sample regression.A further comparative analysis is made on the differences between the large,medium,small and micro models.The study found that:(1)The increase in the population of the elderly and the children has significantly suppressed the demand for automobile consumption,but whether it is the direct or comprehensive suppression effect,the elderly population is stronger than the children population,and the influence paths of the two are different.(2)Compared with areas with lower economic levels,in areas with higher economic levels,the increase in child dependency ratio has a significantly stronger inhibitory effect on automobile consumption demand,while the inhibitory effect of the elderly dependency ratio is weaker;In areas with high travel demand,the effect of the elderly and children’s support ratios on automobile consumption demand is weaker than that in areas with low transportation demand.(3)The increase in the population of the elderly and children has significantly inhibited the growth of the number of medium-sized,small and mini-cars,and the suppression effect on the number of mini-cars is the strongest,followed by medium-sized cars,and finally small cars.The impact on the number of large cars is not significant.For the same model,the increase in the elderly population has a much greater inhibitory effect on the car ownership of that model than the younger population.Finally,based on theoretical analysis and empirical results,this article puts forward four policy enlightenments from four aspects: increasing travel demand,ensuring economic growth,coordinating non-demographic factors,etc,so as to provide references for the long-term,efficient and sustainable development of my country’s auto industry.