Study On The Coupling Relationship Between Urbanization And Water Use Structure In Shenyang

Water is an important part of human society.Unbalanced distribution of water resources,uncoordinated supply,arbitrary waste,and water pollution all hinder the development of cities.The acceleration of the urbanization process has gradually highlighted the problems of water shortage and unbalanced water structure.Solving the water shortage and optimizing the water structure has become an important issue.This article selects Shenyang City’s population,economic,social development and water use data of various industries from 2001 to 2018 for empirical analysis and evaluation,selects 12 indicators for the influencing factors of urbanization level,and selects 10 indicators for the influencing factors of water structure.The five dimensions of transformation and the two dimensions of water use structure were evaluated by principal component analysis respectively,and their main influence factors were extracted,and a coupling coordination degree model of the two systems was established to analyze the degree of coordination and equilibrium in different years.On this basis,predict the future development of urbanization and water use structure,and explore the level of coupling development between the two systems in the planning level.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)A Granger causality test was conducted on the two systems of urbanization and water use structure in Shenyang,and it was verified that urbanization was the Granger cause of changes in water use structure,that is,there was a statistically significant relationship between urbanization and water use structure.Causal relationship.According to the test results of cointegration,it is concluded that there is a long-term balanced and stable relationship between urbanization and water use structure.(2)Construct a comprehensive evaluation system for urbanization and a comprehensive evaluation system for water use structure,use principal component analysis to extract the main factors affecting the two systems and obtain the comprehensive development level of the two systems.The results show that the development level of water structure in Shenyang is ahead of the development level of urbanization.Based on the coupling coordination degreemodel,the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and water use structure changed from0.026 to 0.567 during 2001-2018,showing a trend of coordinated development.It shows that the urbanization and water use structure of Shenyang has changed from disorder,chaos and singularity to stable,balanced and diversified,and the coupling and coordination relationship between the two systems has evolved from imbalance to coordinated development.(3)Construct the gray forecast GM(1,1)model to predict the population,economic,social development and water use data of various industries in 2019-2021,and use the aforementioned coupling coordination degree method to evaluate the coordination degree in the next 7 years.Combining the aforementioned evaluation results,it can be concluded that2001-2009 is the phase of urbanization and water structure imbalance;2010-2019 is the phase of weak coordination between urbanization and water use structure;and the period of2020-2021 is the intermediate coordination phase of urbanization and water structure.