Comparison Of Water Resources Optimal Allocation Schemes In Beijing

Beijing is plagued by drought for a long time, the worsening ecological environment and successive years of drought; water shortage has been seriously affecting the region’s economic development. How to reasonable optimise the limited water resources and develop effective water resources optimal allocation scheme, has become a focus on the problems in water resources planning and management.In order to make the limited water resources in Beijing to play out the biggest utility and support the healthy development of the city, it is necessary to optimize the allocation of water resources, not only ensure the harmonious development of the city, and can effectively meet the demand of water resources of the city. In this paper, we comprehensive analysed Beijing’s social and economic development situation, using system dynamics method to establish a water resources system dynamics (SD) model, and considering the limitations of system dynamics in parameter estimation, we used grey prediction model to forecast some parameters of the SD model, make the SD model is more in line with the actual operation, at the same time, in order to improve the prediction accuracy of grey forecasting model, this article also improved traditional grey GM (1,1) model, and combined with the grey Verhulst model, applied them to the SD model parameter estimates, as much as possible in order to improve the estimate accuracy of model parameters, then through simulation and sensitivity analysis of SD model, we selected the parameters which have larger impact on the system, by adjusting the value of these parameters, designed four contrast scheams based on the conventional development scheam, which are water saving^ industrial structure adjustment sewage disposal and comprehensive treatment scheam.Then under different scheme using SD model to do simulation for the future development trend forecast, and construct the comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources, using principal component analysis (pca) based on the result of the simulation of each scheme run by the index system to evaluate and analysis, then choose the optimum scheme of water resources allocation in Beijing.In this paper, the grey forecasting model combined with system dynamics model were applied to the simulation of water system, improved the simulation precision of the SD model, different water resources allocation schemes were designed, through the comparison we can verify each solution set is reasonable, and from the angle of the solution set and the optimal solution, the reasonable related suggestions of future water resources use in Beijing were given.