Research On The Inventory Demand Forecast Of Aircraft Supplies In Aviation Catering Enterprises

With the continuous advancement of CAAC’s air transportation strategy of "domestic opening up and international opening up",China’s air transport has maintained a sustained growth trend by the end of 2019.Novel coronavirus pneumonia has been a significant impact on China’s civil aviation industry since January 2020.However,due to the effective and effective measures of epidemic prevention and control,CAAC has been the first to recover from the bottom and become the fastest and best aviation market in the world.As an important auxiliary organization of civil aviation transportation,aviation catering enterprises have become an indispensable part of civil aviation to improve service quality and promote the development of the industry.Yet with the increasing personalized demand of aviation consumers,the huge amount of aircraft supplies not only drives the development of aviation catering enterprises,but also brings many challenges,especially the increasing types of aircraft supplies and the shortening of their life cycle,which makes it more and more difficult for enterprises to make rapid and accurate response to their supply and demand market.Facing the increasing pressure of inventory cost,how to scientifically divide the categories of aircraft supplies and reasonably and accurately forecast the demand of key inventory has important practical significance for effectively reducing the inventory management cost of aviation catering enterprises and improving the support ability of aircraft supplies.From the perspective of time series analysis,this thesis used to optimize the inventory classification of aircraft supplies as the premise,and applied the combination model to predict the future inventory demand of aircraft supplies in aviation catering enterprises on the basis of ARIMA model.The main research work is as follows:Based on the analysis of the characteristics of aircraft supplies in aviation catering enterprises,a comprehensive inventory classification method ABC-XYZ matrix is established,which combines the traditional ABC classification method and the XYZ classification method considering the demand fluctuation factors.According to the fluctuation and importance of the demand for mechanical supplies,the corresponding inventory control strategy are proposed.Furthermore,taking a company A,an aviation catering enterprise in Guangzhou as an example,using the ABC-XYZ matrix and inventory optimization strategy,the aircraft supply inventory classification scheme of company A is obtained,and the aircraft supply category for the subsequent inventory demand forecast is defined.On the premise of inventory classification optimization,this thesis proposed a combination forecasting model based on ARIMA model for the key inventory of aircraft supplies.This model combines ARIMA model and LSTM model.Aiming at the shortcomings of ARIMA model,this thesis used LSTM model to modify the residual series of ARIMA model,so as to better fit the linear and nonlinear parts of the inventory demand series of aircraft supplies.In order to verify the effectiveness of ARIMA-LSTM combination forecasting model,Using the historical inventory demand data of aircraft supplies of company A,five different experiments were set up for verification and analysis.The mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square log error(MRSLE)and average absolute percentage error(MAPE)were selected to compare the prediction performance of single and combined models.The experimental results show that the ARIMA-LSTM combination model can effectively predict the inventory demand of aviation catering enterprises,and the prediction error is smaller and the accuracy is higher than that of other single models and combined models.