Demand Forecast Of Ground Service Support Equipment In Hub Airport Considering Flight Delays

In recent years,China civil aviation industry has continued to develop at a high speed.Aircraft takeoffs and landings have grown rapidly,apron operations hav e become increasingly busy,and the demand for ground support services has continued to increase.Busy airports have faced bottlenecks such as low operating efficiency and insufficient coordination capabilities.Airport ground support services use ground service support equipment for ground operations.There are strict service procedures and sequences between various ground service support operations.After the aircraft enters the aircraft position,the airport ground service support unit is responsible for completing a series of support operations.The time window cannot change the order or change the time arbitrarily.At present,various hub airports have problems such as low efficiency of flight ground service support and increased flight delay time.The main reasons are the unreasonable allocation of airport ground service support equipment,and the uncertainty of flight delays has aggravated the difficulty of special vehicle scheduling.Therefore,ensuring the efficient operation of airport ground services has become the primary issue that my country’s civil aviation industry must solve.Realizing the demand forecast of ground service support equipment is the basis and important guarantee for ground service resource planning,and is the key to achieving efficient airport ground service operations.This research aims to construct a demand forecast system for airport ground service support equipment considering flight delays,which can be used to predict the demand for ground service support equipment at a ce rtain period in the future;first consider the impact of flight delays on the demand for ground servic e support equipment.Based on the time series prediction algorithm,the ARIMA model and the LSTM neural network model are established to predict airport f light delays.By comparing the prediction results of the two methods and comparing their advantages and disadvantages,the LSTM model that is more suitable for this article is finally selected for flight delay prediction,Obtain the flight number of each time period and the starting time of ground support service under the condition of delay,and establish the demand forecast model of ground service support equipment considering the flight delay.From the following three aspects: minimum demand forecast for ground service support equipment,demand forecast for ground service support equipment considering service time windows,and long-term demand forecast for ground service support equipment The demand is forecasted and adjusted;finally,the actual operation data of a domestic hub airport is analyzed,and the demand for ground service support equipment under different conditions is respectively predicted,and the validity and reliability of the model are verified,and the forecast is proved As a result,it can promote information sharing and coordinated decision-making between the supply and demand parties of airport ground support services,reduce flight delays,improve the efficiency of airport ground support services and equipment utilization,and ensure the efficient operation of airport scenes.