| In the past decade,China’s urban rail transit industry has developed vigorously benefited from the advancement of urbanization and the enhancement of population mobility,while introducing international advanced technology and constantly pioneering innovating and independently researching and developing.Up to now,the operation of urban rail transit has been taken in 40 cities in China,however,the increasing passenger flow pressure with obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics puts forward higher requirements on travel costs,operation income,transport organization and other aspects.In order to solve the problems caused by the dynamic change of passenger flow,an operation mode of metro multi-group is put forward.In this paper,from the very begining of making formation scheme,the system structure of urban rail transit and its proportion are discussed,then the metro passenger flow and its formationing optimization are taken as the research object for further study.(1)The classification of metro passenger flow and influencing factors of passenger travel behavior are discussed,and the Spatio-temporal distribution of metro passenger flow data in Hang Zhou and Chong Qiong’ are analyzed.Based on the actual situation and route characteristics,it is verified that the ‘tidal phenomenon’ of passenger flow in time distribution is obvious,and the spatial distribution is affected by the function of the area.On this basis,the importance degree of influencing factors of passenger flow is sorted by AHP.(2)Current technical parameters of metro vehicles in China are investigated,and the status quo of operating lines in medium and large cities are analyzed in combination with the organization scheme and the principle of vehicle selection.The results show that6-vehicle-foramtioning are adopted in more than half of the operating lines,and vehicles of type A and B are mainly used.Meanwhile,it is economically feasible to improve the service level in short-long term expansion.In addition,from the perspective of engineering technical feasibility,in order to ensure that the multi-group metro can be connected and extended in the future,the maturity of technical conditions such as dynamic-towing structure,braking performance and disassembly and connection should be considered as well.(3)Based on the traditional formation method and the principle of formationing optimization,and taking full account of passenger cost,enterprise investment and full-load equilibrium degree,the optimization model of metro multi-grouping scheme in short-long term is established,and the NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm is applied to solve the study case.The analysis results show that the 3 to 6 grouping formation is quite appropriate for mixed operation mode in near term.After solving the model and eliminating the obvious unfeasible schemes,four optimal “4+6” multi-group schemes are selected to compose the alternative schemes set for decision-making.(4)After considering the bounded rationality,preference and attitude of decision makers,as well as the better effects of multi-criteria and group decision making,a multi-grouping scheme decision making method based on heterogeneous decision groups is proposed by using modified prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy theory.The results under three situations show that the determination of multi-grouping scheme is affected by the internal structure of the decision-making group.There exists a significant difference in final result between the risk-oriented and conservative-oriented decision-making groups,that is,the decision-making results are affected by both the decision preference and the risk attitude.On this basis,the comparative analysis of the results with other method verifies the pertinence and effectiveness of the proposed method.The sensitivity test of key parameters confirms the previous conclusion,and provides a reference basis for decision comparison and strategy adjustment under different heterostructures. |
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