Research On The Method And Application Of Supplementary Quotas In Monte Carlo Simulated Hydropower Engineering

As a social yardstick to judge the price of hydropower projects,the cost of hydropower projects plays an important role in the early stage of project approval and the later stage of construction.The accuracy of hydropower project cost compilation is closely related to hydropower project quota.During the period of the 11 th Five Year Plan and 13 th five year plan,with the continuous expansion of the national hydropower installed capacity,the continuous progress of hydropower construction science and technology,and the emergence of four new technologies,the current quota sub item setting of hydropower projects can not truly reflect the characteristics of project construction technology and resource consumption,which is not conducive to the early investment decision-making and unit price compilation in the implementation process of hydropower projects.Therefore,it has been the basic work actively promoted and advocated by the industry quota management department to carry out the preparation and research of supplementary quota based on the hydropower projects that have been built or are under construction.By using the methods of literature review and case analysis,expert investigation and field observation,this paper comprehensively combs the two common methods of supplementary quota compilation.Through two cases of supplementary quota compilation,it analyzes and summarizes the limitations of traditional quota compilation methods and the difficulties and problems of current quota compilation.On the basis of analyzing and summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of preparation methods,a new method of supplementary quota preparation Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed.Taking the pilot shaft construction of Fengning pumped storage power station in Hebei Province as an example,the algorithm model is used to analyze and put forward the supplementary quota of large diameter machine drilling pilot shaft,which provides reference for the follow-up similar projects to carry out related research work.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)Through consulting the relevant literature of water conservancy,hydropower,transportation and other industries,this paper makes a systematic study on two kinds of quota compilation methods,such as man hour research method and empirical statistics method.Aiming at the causes and effects of the abnormal values of the original data of the quota,this paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of three gross error criteria,Laite,Grubbs and Dixon On the premise of the requirement,the appropriate error processing method is proposed to obtain the basic data of supplementary quota.(2)Based on the analysis of Sichuan Quxue hydropower project and Shandong Yimeng hydropower project quota preparation cases,it is found that the traditional quota preparation method is difficult to meet the requirements of the development of the times.On the one hand,the traditional method requires a lot of manpower and material resources,and the preparation cycle is long.On the other hand,the construction enterprises ignore the allocation of quota personnel and the accumulation of data,and the traditional methods lack detailed practical data.Therefore,it is extremely urgent and necessary to study the compilation method of supplementary quota for hydropower projects under the new situation.(3)A Monte Carlo simulation model of supplementary quota for hydropower projects is established.On the basis of previous scholars’ research,this paper draws experience from the research topic of hydropower construction quota compilation method,and focuses on the supplementary quota compilation under the condition of limited sample data.Based on the analysis of the basic idea of Monte Carlo simulation technology and the error improvement method,a supplementary quota preparation model of hydropower project based on Monte Carlo simulation is established.(4)Case study and analysis.Based on the geological data and construction resource allocation of Fengning pumped storage power station in Hebei Province,this paper uses the model established in this paper to simulate the time consumption of raise boring machine,and analyzes the accuracy of the simulation results.On the one hand,it verifies the rationality of the established Monte Carlo quota model and the feasibility of method improvement;on the other hand,it uses the algorithm model to calculate the main control machine of each process The resource consumption of large diameter machine drilling pilot well construction is analyzed and put forward.(5)Through theoretical analysis and practical verification,it is found that it is reasonable and feasible to apply Monte Carlo simulation technology to supplementary quota preparation.Monte Carlo simulation technology can use the known limited sample data to predict the overall consumption,effectively reduce the workload of quota observation,greatly improve the efficiency of quota compilation,and effectively solve the problem of "small sample and poor information" widely existing in current quota compilation.In addition,the research shows that the error of Monte Carlo simulation method can be improved by reducing the sample standard deviation σ or variance,which is effective to improve the accuracy of simulation data.Therefore,compared with the traditional quota compilation method,the supplementary quota compilation method based on Monte Carlo simulation technology has certain economy,foresight and operability.It is a fast and effective quota compilation method,which is worthy of further exploration and practice.