Study On Uncertainty Analysis Of Investment Economic Benefit Of Distributed Photovoltaic Project

The problems of environmental pollution,the shortage of fossil energy and the "30·60"carbon peak and carbon neutral targets proposed in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have once again stimulated the investment enthusiasm of the majority of investors for photovoltaic,wind power and other clean energy projects.At the same time,centralized photovoltaic and wind power projects are affected by on-grid electricity prices,land resources,and access conditions,and distributed energy has gradually become a hot investment target.Among them,distributed photovoltaic has the characteristics of small investment scale,short construction period,and high comprehensive electricity price.When calculating the investment economic benefits,the investment economic benefit level of distributed photovoltaics is generally higher than that of large-scale centralized photovoltaic power plants.However,after investigating distributed photovoltaic investment projects in the market,its actual investment economic benefits are more uncertain than centralized photovoltaics.Therefore,when evaluating the economic benefit of distributed photovoltaic project investment,it is very important for investors to analyze the possible level of investment economic benefit and complete the uncertainty analysis of economic benefit.The analysis and research on the uncertainty of economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic project investment in this paper will have certain practical significance,and it will have a good role in promoting the healthy development of distributed photovoltaic investment industry.This article takes the uncertainty of the economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic project investment as the research object,deeply analyzes the factors that may affect the economic benefits of investment,and analyzes the influence of factors on the uncertainty of economic benefits based on the relationship between the factors and economic benefits indicators degree.In the main part of the article,the index system that affects the economic benefits of investment is defined first,the CAM method and SD model are used to jointly identify the factors that affect the economic benefits of investment.Established a set of uncertain factors based on policy,economy,natural environment,technology,and management level classification.At the same time,it also established the influence relationship between factors and three-level economic benefit indicators based on the SD causality diagram.Then use the financial evaluation model to determine the ratio of the sensitivity coefficient of the full investment IRR to the change of the secondary economic benefit index,use the entropy weight method to determine the initial weight w of the impact of the change of the tertiary index on the uncertainty of the investment economic benefit,and investigate through case data Obtain the ratio of the influence weight of the secondary index to the tertiary index.Finally determine the influence weight W,the tertiary index on the uncertainty of economic benefits.Subsequently,according to the relationship between the three-level indicators and the factors,the influence coefficient of each factor on the uncertainty of economic benefits is further calculated,and the influence degree of the factors is sorted.At the end of the article,based on fuzzy language and Monte Carlo simulation analysis method,a calculation example is analyzed to judge the degree of uncertainty of project income.Based on the width of the fluctuation range of the total investment internal rate of return,the uncertainty degree of the project investment economic benefits under different investment entities is compared,and the reliability of the calculation results of the uncertainty of the economic benefits of the factors is verified based on this.The main research achievement of this paper is to quantify the influence coefficient of factors on the uncertainty of investment economic benefit.Using this coefficient,the uncertainty degree of project investment economic benefit can be judged through expert evaluation,which has important application value in investment decision-making,scheme evaluation and investment mode selection of similar projects.