Research On Risk Assessment Of Development Stage China’s Investment In Myanmar’s PPP Energy Project

Myanmar is a typical energy market with both opportunities and risks.It has abundant energy resources,low development level,backward infrastructure and complex investment environment.Although the PPP model provides solutions for Myanmar’s energy infrastructure construction,the current Myanmar PPP model is in the early stage of development,and most of the projects are in the start-up and preparation stage.On the one hand,Myanmar lacks complete systems and procedures,a stable external environment,good governance by government departments,and collaboration with the private sector.On the other hand,the existing theoretical research lacks a detailed assessment of the particularity of the PPP model and the factors of the energy industry,resulting in risk management data that cannot meet the needs of work practice.At present,Chinese companies investing in Myanmar PPP projects are facing the predicament of mismatch between theory and practice,and risk assessment materials are insufficient in pertinence,guidance,objectivity,and practicability.Based on the perspective of investors,this paper uses the critical success factors（CSFs）in the development stage of Myanmar’s PPP energy project as a benchmark to analyze the implementation status of Myanmar PPP projects in four aspects:institutional construction,investment environment,public sector governance and energy industry factors.And carry out risk identification and evaluation from the perspective of the absence of key success factors.This paper analyzes the risk quantitatively and qualitatively through the entropy method and objective data over the years.With reference to the World Bank’s Infrastructure Development Benchmarking Evaluation System,the risk level of Myanmar PPP projects in project preparation,project procurement and contract management was evaluated,and the outstanding risk factors were evaluated based on objective data from multilateral financial institutions and consulting agencies.At the same time,this article fully considers the risk dynamics of long-term projects and the differences in risk levels in different energy fields,comprehensively evaluates the dynamic laws and development trends of risks,and combines the actual conditions of the project to control energy,resource levels,and public attitudes.Industry factors are included in the risk assessment category.The risk evaluation index system constructed in this paper pays more attention to the particularity of energy PPP projects,through the improvement of basic data and evaluation methods,and carries out a dynamic risk assessment.A more refined,objective,flexible and efficient risk evaluation system has been constructed,which has improved the subjectivity of risk evaluation,and is more in line with PPP project management practices,and provides more effective guidance and support for the development of long-term PPP energy project risk management.