| In the face of high resource and environmental costs in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,as well as increasingly tight constraints on social and economic development,the contradiction between human social and economic activities and natural ecology has become more and more prominent.Sustainable development and ecological civilization construction have gradually developed into a global consensus.As a traditional industrial city,the economic model of Zhuzhou City at the cost of destroying the ecological environment has faced development bottlenecks,so there have been outstanding problems in resource supply,environmental quality,and industrial development.In order to improving the carrying capacity of the ecological in Zhuzhou City,the thesis combined the background and requirements of ecological civilization construction and sustainable development,based on basic theories and review research,focusing on the use of system dynamics analysis of the relationship between global and local systems of ecological carrying capacity mechanism.Then through boundary delimitated,subsystem divided,causal feedback mechanism analyzed,system flow flow chart designed,model checked,etc.The system dynamics model of Zhuzhou City’s ecological carrying capacity was constructed.The research results showed that:(1)The ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City was between 1.20-3.34 from 2008 to 2018.In 11 years,the actual value of the ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City was greater than the ideal reference value,and it was always in a state of overload,which dropped to 1.2 in 2018,with an average annual decrease of 10.00%,therefore the ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City was improving year by year;environmental governance,resource consumption,technological progress and environmental pollution were the main reasons restricting the improvement of Zhuzhou’s ecological carrying capacity.(2)The model check showed that the system dynamics model could be used for simulation and research of real systems;From 2019 to 2030,the ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City would transition from a high load to a medium load,which dropped from 1.27 in 2019 to 1.07 in 2030.It was still overloaded,and the improvement rate slow down after 2025,indicating the current situation in Zhuzhou City.The development model would not meet the requirements of sustainable development and still needed to be further adjusted and improved.(3)Based on the status quo evaluation,actual development needs and sensitivity analysis results,five scenarios were set up and the ecological carrying capacity status and development trends under different development models were simulated;scenario simulation results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of Zhuzhou City would transition from overloaded to loadable in 2025 in the industrial structure optimization scenario and the resource saving scenario,and other scenarios would be in a moderately or slightly overloaded state;compared with the natural development scenario,the supporting capacity of the urban ecosystem would have the highest degree of improvement in the industrial structure optimization scenario and the environmental governance-oriented scenario,respectively reaching 13.00% and 12.00%,the pressure on human society and the economy in the industrial structure optimization scenario would be the least,which would be reduced by14.00%,the carrying capacity of social and economic coordination would be the largest in the industrial structure optimization scenario,with the greatest potential for improvement,and the carrying capacity under the scenario would be the best,which would be reduced by 10.00%;the ecological carrying capacity development under the compound regulation scenario would have the best performance,which was a powerful reference for the future ecological civilization construction in Zhuzhou City. |
