Study On Scale Of Urban Development Based On Ecological Carrying Capacity

With the rapid development of the city, the size of the world’s population continues to expand, city problem is becoming more and more serious, and people are enjoying the comfort and convenience which was brought from economic development, at the same time, but also suffered a crisis of resources, environment, population pressure and other problems. In the face of all kinds of crisis and pressure, people began to reflect the model of social development and the way of people’s life, and gradually realized the importance of the ecological environment, appeared the thought of protect environment, opened a new page of "ecological awakening" in the history of human development.Therefore, many scholars began to in-depth study ecological environment, sustainable development, and has made a series of achievements, ecological thoughts be deeply rooted among the people more and more with the mature of the study. Ecological footprint is one of the large number of ecological theory, it aims to classiy the human life data, and equivalent calculation, then to analysis ecological based on the calculation result, and test the sustainable development of the region.This paper is based on the ecological footprint theory, statistical analysis of Liyang from 1994 to 2010--17 years of ecological footprint, ecological deficit, and according to the relationship between ecological conditions and the size of the population, to predict the scale of population in the future of Liyang. It consists of the following six chapters:The first chapter introduces the background of this study, the research purpose, significance, ideas and methods of this paper;The second chapter combs the related theory research on domestic and foreign, to lay the foundation for the study of this paper;The third chapter is the theoretical basis, introduces the theory of sustainable development, city scale theory and ecological carrying capacity theory;The fourth chapter is the basis of practice, introduces the calculation method of ecological footprint, and analyses the related case;The fifth chapter is the focus of this paper, through the analysis of Liyang from 1994 to 2010--17 years of ecological footprint, the ecological deficit, combined with the future goal of the development of Liyang in 2020 and 2050, to calculate the size of the population, and several other auxiliary methods of verification, Liyang’s area population size in 2020 is in the range of 850～900 thousands, in 2050 is about 1200 to 1270 thousands; Liyang’s downtown area population size in 2020 is 300 thousands, about 550 thousands in 2050.The sixth chapter of this paper calculates the results of the analysis, and put forward related suggestions and countermeasures.