Prediction And Application Of Construction Cost Based On Grey Theory

With the rapid development of China’s economy,the construction industry has also ushered in a golden age of development.The healthy and orderly development of the real estate industry not only plays a very important role in the promotion of China’s economy,but also relates to the international people’s livelihood and social stability.Reasonable control of market investment has great practical significance.In this new situation,It is very important to find an effective,feasible and easy to operate cost prediction method for improving the operation efficiency of the whole building system.According to the factors that affect the project cost in reality,the grey prediction theory can distinguish the development trend and the development degree of different factors in the project cost,analyze the original data,use accumulation,subtraction and other means to generate and process,find the change rule of the whole and each factor according to the new generated number,and generate a more regular data sequence,and then According to the mathematical relationship between the new series,the data to be predicted in the future are calculated.The purpose of this paper is to find out the internal factors that affect the project cost according to the basic principle of grey theory modeling,analyze the shortcomings of the model,further improve it and improve the accuracy of the prediction results.In order to reveal its internal law and predict its further development trend,the cost classification methods of construction projects are different,but on the whole,considering the change trend and main influencing factors of the total cost of construction projects,the grey forecast model is found,the project cost prediction is carried out,and the results are verified by a project example in Hami City,and the accuracy before and after the optimization model is analyzed.The main work and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)Starting from the composition form of construction cost,this paper makes theoretical analysis and case analysis on the factors that affect the construction cost,so as to provide a reliable data base for the establishment of the model.(2)In this paper,the grey classic prediction model is described in detail,and the calculation method in the project cost prediction is made clear by using the project example of Hami City.(3)The gray prediction model is optimized,the gray classic prediction model and the optimization model are studied and compared.(4)The grey classic model and optimization model are applied to a project in Hami City,and the results show that the prediction accuracy is further improved.