Research On Electric Vehicle Selection Under The Framework Of Discrete Choice Analysis

Climate,environment and energy are long-term problems faced by human society.Countries are actively implementing energy and environmental protection strategies,and the world has entered an era of truly united efforts to solve common problems of human society.Transportation is the main area of greenhouse gas emissions,energy consumption and exhaust emissions,and usually accounts for more than 20 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions.Therefore,the field of transportation plays a crucial role in effectively solving this common problem that directly affects mankind.In China’s case,car exhaust is considered one of the biggest sources of serious air pollution in the country.In Beijing,for example,vehicle emissions accounted for about 60 percent of air pollution in 2015.Several studies have shown that electric vehicles are widely seen as a promising solution to environmental degradation and energy consumption.China as the world’s largest electric car market,the market share of more than70% of the world,for both the design of incentive policy and in the promotion of electric car consumer cognition compared with other countries are relatively mature,so this paper will focus on the problem for selection of electric vehicles in the Chinese market,from the micro level,for China’s electric car market consumers most concerned about product attributes to customize declarative choice experiment research,and collected including individual consumers with different characteristics of 842 valid subjects purchasing behavior of stated preference data.According to the discrete choice model,we use the choice experiment to understand the choice behavior of Chinese consumers’ electric vehicles.Firstly,a number of logit models were used to judge the influence of selected product attribute characteristics on the choice of Chinese family electric vehicles,and the simulation of payment willingness and market share of various attributes was conducted.At the same time,several logit models were improved,the social characteristics of consumers were added,and the influence of different product attributes on different groups of consumers was discussed and studied in detail.The innovation puts forward the grouping of consumers’ geographical environment,as well as the grouping of people with different attitudes towards the development of electric vehicles.We found that the purchase price is still the most important factor for consumers,and the reduction of electric vehicle price will greatly stimulate the increase of electric vehicle market share.At the same time,if technology improves to optimize the range and charging time of electric cars at the same time,the market share of electric cars will also increase significantly.In addition,the product attributes of electric vehicles have different influences on different groups of consumers.We found that the older the age,the easier it is to buy electric vehicles,and the price change of electric vehicles has more significant influence on whether people under 30 years old buy electric vehicles,but no significant influence on other age groups.At the same time,we found that if consumers are in an advantageous geographical environment,such as the convenient installation of charging piles in the community,or even the community with its own charging piles,or if the charging station is close to their home,such as the group below 5km,they are more concerned about such indicators as annual fuel cost and range when buying electric cars.In addition,we found that consumers who are more optimistic about future development of electric vehicles are more sensitive to all product attributes of electric vehicles(specifically,purchase price,annual fuel cost,range and charging time).