Evaluation Of Urban Vulnerability Of The Ecological Urban Agglomeration Around Poyang Lake Based On Matter Element Model

In the context of rapid urbanization,a large number of people and economies are converging to cities,and the size of cities is constantly expanding.As a result,problems such as shortage of urban resources,environmental degradation,speculative land development,and insufficient education and medical supplies have emerged.In order to solve this problem,this paper takes the Ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake the research area,analyzes its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial agglomeration changes,and clarifies the influencing factors of urban vulnerability,which is important for guiding the sustainable development of the economy,society,resources and environment in the research area Guiding significance.(1)This paper uses the Ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake as the research area and county area as the research scale to evaluate and analyze its urban vulnerability.Construct an indicator system from three aspects of economy,society,resources and environment,use the weighted summation model to evaluate the vulnerability of each subsystem and the comprehensive vulnerability of the city,analyze its temporal evolution characteristics and spatial agglomeration evolution characteristics,and detect the factors of the geographic detector Combined with the interaction detection and obstacle degree models,the main factors affecting urban vulnerability are analyzed.Finally,the matter-element model is used to classify the comprehensive urban vulnerability,find out the problems that occur in different levels of vulnerable cities,and propose corresponding countermeasures.The main conclusions are as follows:(2)From 2000 to 2017,the overall urban vulnerability index of the Ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake showed a downward trend.The vulnerability index of the economic and social subsystems of the urban agglomerations in the urban agglomeration showed an upward trend and then a downward trend;the resources and environmental subsystems of 6 cities including Jinxian,Luxi,Xingan,Wanzai,Jing’an and Tonggu County appeared year by year.The trend of decline is that the vulnerability of resource and environmental subsystems in 40 cities,such as Nanchang City,Xinjian County,Nanchang County,Anyi County,Jingdezhen City District,and Fuliang County,has gradually increased,and the urban ecological environment has gradually deteriorated.(3)In 2000,2010,and 2017,the urban fragile spaces around the Ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake showed weak clustering,clustering,and significant clustering characteristics,respectively.From 2000 to 2017,the southwest and southeast parts of the urban agglomeration have the largest changes in the status of these cities;the northern part of the study area includes Jingdezhen urban area,De’an,Yongxiu,Xingzi,Liyang,Fuliang and Jiujiang counties,and these areas have the smallest changes in urban status;The overall change in the cities in the "Z" shape in the central and southern regions is relatively stable.In general,the overall urban condition of the Poyang Lake Eco-Cities has improved.(4)From 2000 to 2017,per capital GDP,financial self-sufficiency rate,number of ordinary middle school students per 10,000 people,urbanization rate,number of doctors per 10,000 people,urban-rural income ratio,proportion of water area to total land area,per capital land resources Quantity and biological abundance are the main factors affecting urban vulnerability.Interaction detection results show that from 2000 to 2017,per capital GDP,urbanization rate,number of ordinary middle school students per 10,000 people,population density,unit employment at the end of the year,ratio of water area to total area,forest land coverage,per capital land resources And biological abundance are the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of urban fragility in the study area.They interact with other indicators to form differences in spatial distribution.Obstacle degree model results show that: economic scale of financial self-sufficiency,the employment ratio of the secondary and tertiary industries and the tertiary industry’s added value as a proportion of GDP;the number of unit employees and the number of hospital beds in social development at the end of the year;Rate,water surface rate,per capital land resources and biological abundance are the main factors affecting urban vulnerability.Through analysis,it is reasonable to select geographical probes and obstacle degree methods to study the influencing factors of urban vulnerability.(5)From 2000 to 2017,the vulnerability levels of the economic and social subsystems of the Ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake continued to decrease,and the vulnerability levels of the resource and environment subsystems continued to rise.By 2017,there will be no low-vulnerability cities.The grading results of the comprehensive urban vulnerability through the matter-element model are: from 2000 to 2017,the proportion of low-fragility and low-fragility cities in the Poyang Lake eco-urban agglomeration increased rapidly,and high-fragility cities and high-fragility The proportion of cities has plummeted.By 2017,there will be no high-fragility and high-fragility cities in the study area.Nanchang,Pingxiang,and Jiujiang are low-fragility cities;Xinjian County,Nanchang County,Shangli County,Luxi County,Wuning County,Hukou County,Pengze County and Leping City,Ruichang City,Dexing City,etc.are less vulnerable cities;Anyi County,Jinxian County,Fuliang County,Lianhua County,Jiujiang County,Xiushui County,Duchang County and Xingzi County are moderately vulnerable cities.There are some problems in the process of urban development around the Poyang Lake Eco-City Group.In the future,we should adapt to local conditions,take a road with its own characteristics,achieve rapid economic development,increase investment in health care and education,improve the social security system,and increase resources.Utilization efficiency,promote the continuous development of low-carbon economy,circular economy and other green economies,delineate the red line of ecological protection,but also increase people’s environmental awareness and strengthen the protection and governance of resources.