| Inland waterway transportation has the advantages of large transportation capacity,less land occupation,low energy consumption,and low pollution.The Yangtze River is the world’s largest and busiest navigation river in the world,which plays an important role in promoting the coordinated development of the basin economy.General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to build a "golden waterway in the entire Yangtze River basin" and relying on the golden waterway to build the Yangtze River economic belt has become a national strategy.However,the current potential of Yangtze River shipping is far from being fully exploited.There are three major constraints,including low headroom bridges in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,obstacles to the Three Gorges Hub in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,and low-grade waterways in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The problem of obstacles to navigation at the hub is the most obvious and urgent,which has seriously affected the economic and social development of the Yangtze River shipping and the areas along the river.However,at present,people have more qualitative understanding of the obstruction characteristics of the Three Gorges Hub,and lack of quantitative analysis.Many of the congestion reduction schemes are mostly long-term and thorough engineering technical solutions,with large investment,long periods,and lack of effective implementation schemes that can be operated in the near future.Therefore,carrying out related research has good theoretical significance and practical value.Taking the Three Gorges Project’s navigation obstruction characteristics and congestion prevention scheme as the research object,the data retrieval,site investigation,expert consultation,theoretical analysis,mathematical modeling and other methods were used to first systematically sort out the theoretical navigation capacity of the Three Gorges Project’s ship lock and the current status of navigation and obstacle construction;Based on a comprehensive analysis of the regional economic development and cargo flow of the Three Gorges Hub,quantitative regression methods such as regression analysis,time series forecasting,transportation elasticity coefficient,and combined forecasting methods were used to predict the Three Gorges Hub in 2025 and 2030.Passenger and cargo transportation volume through the dam;again,quantitatively calculated the gaps in obstacles to navigation,delays in delays in navigation,and economic losses in obstacles to navigation;qualitatively analyzed the safety and environmental pollution effects caused by obstacles to navigation;and based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,A calculation model of "impediment to navigation" was constructed,and the impediment to navigation of the Three Gorges Project from 2003 to 2018 was calculated.Finally,based on a comprehensive evaluation of the pros and cons of existing mitigation schemes,drawing on the successful experience of domestic and foreign ship lock charges and road transportation congestion charges,the Three Gorges Hub toll mitigation was proposed from the aspects of cargo classification,ship classification,tolling standards,and calculation formulas.The new model,and elaborated the theoretical basis,necessity and feasibility of congestion charging for the Three Gorges Hub.The research results quantitatively reveal the characteristics of the Three Gorges Project’s navigation obstacles,and propose a new model of economical means to alleviate shiplock congestion.It will provide a reference for the public to further understand the severity of the Three Gorges Project’s navigation obstacles,and will implement the Three Gorges Hub to industry authorities.Obstacle mitigation project provides decision reference. |