Study On The Spatial And Temporal Variation Of Ecological Vulnerability In Key Provinces Along The "Belt And Road" Based On The VSD Model

The "Belt and Road" initiative has a positive impact on building a community of human destiny and plays an important role in connecting the development of key provinces along the route and neighboring countries.As an important part of the domestic section of the "Belt and Road",the development of key provinces along the route can play a radiating role for neighboring cities.However,the rapid economic development of key provinces along the belt and road can lead to frequent ecological problems,and the ecologically fragile areas are often more obvious,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the region.This thesis uses multivariate data,takes 2005,2010,2015 and 2020 as research time periods,selects 14 representative ecological vulnerability indicators from the integrated natural and socio-economic perspectives based on the VSD conceptual model to construct a regional ecological vulnerability index system,uses the integrated index method to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ecological vulnerability,and on the basis of this,the dynamic change characteristics of ecological vulnerability in four different time periods,2005-2010,2010-2015,2015-2020 and 2005-2020,were compared and analyzed in order to better grasp the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of ecological vulnerability in the study area.Finally,based on the above research results,ecological management recommendations are proposed in relation to the degree of ecological vulnerability in the study area.The main research findings are as follows:（1）From the temporal evolution characteristics of ecological vulnerability,the spatial distribution of slight vulnerability and potential vulnerability from 2005 to 2020 overlap highly,and the sum of these two areas is greater than 52% in all four years,and the ecological vulnerability of the study area is still at a good stage.However,by 2020,the proportion of both moderate vulnerability and severe vulnerability has increased significantly,and the situation of ecological vulnerability protection remains serious in the future.（2）From the spatial evolution characteristics of ecological vulnerability,the study area’s ecological vulnerability is dominated by potential vulnerability and slight vulnerability,accounting for 84.92% of the total,with low ecological vulnerability.（3）From a provincial spatial perspective,the province with the largest proportion of potential vulnerability is Xinjiang.The province with the largest proportion of slightly vulnerable areas is Inner Mongolia.The province with the largest proportion of mildly vulnerable areas is still Xinjiang.The largest proportion of moderately vulnerable areas is in Shanghai,and the largest proportion of severely vulnerable areas is in Guangdong.The above pattern of provincial distribution of vulnerability indicates that human activities’ disturbance has a stronger impact on regional ecological vulnerability.（4）In terms of the dynamic changes in ecological vulnerability,the regions with reduced ecological vulnerability have gone through a process from the eastern region to the western region and then to the eastern region.Regions with poorer natural background conditions are less resistant to human disturbance,and once they are subjected to more disturbance,ecological vulnerability rises more quickly.