| Ecosystem services are products or services that the natural environment provides directly or indirectly to human beings.The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area（GBA）is a natural land and sea intersecting area in Guangdong Province,which is rich in natural and marine resources.The research on the evaluation of the ecosystem service value of the Greater Bay Area and the study of the characteristics of temporal and spatial differentiation provide basic research for the construction of the ecological environment and the protection of the overall natural environment.Through ESV research,it reflects the evolution process of ESV in the Greater Bay Area.Provide a positive reference for future land use planning,urban agglomeration development and ecosystem protection policies.Taking the GBA as an example,this study first obtained the interpreted remote sensing image data of the Greater Bay Area,and then analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use changes in the three phases of 2000,2010,and 2020.Finally,use Xie Gaodi’s value method to evaluate ESV.On this basis,analyze the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics and dynamic changes of ESV in the GBA from 2000 to 2020.Then use geographic weighted regression model and principal component analysis to analyze the natural and social factors that affect the changes in ecosystem services;finally,use the Markov prediction model to predict ESV in the Greater Bay Area in 2030.The main research results are as follows:（1）In general,from 2000 to 2020,the area of construction land and unused land in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will increase,while the area of other types of land will decrease.For example,the area of cultivated land and water area has decreased the most,especially when a large amount of water area is converted into construction Land.Construction land is expanding around the city circle.From the perspective of land use type transfer,the land transferred out is mainly cultivated land,and the most obvious land transferred in is construction land.The center of gravity of each region has also changed in different degrees and directions during the 20-year period.For example,from 2000 to 2010,the forest land was mainly transferred to the northwest by 1171m,and by 2020,it was transferred to the southeast by 591.8m.The construction land has also undergone a lot of changes.The transfer of construction land:from 2000 to 2010,the construction land moved3602m to the north,and by 2020 it moved 936m to the southeast.（2）The ESV of the GBA has shown a constant decrease from 2000 to 2020.In2000,2010,and 2020,the ESV of the GBA was 2167.216×10~8 yuan,2097.5×10~8yuan,and 1918.76×10~8 yuan.From 2000 to 2010,the Greater Bay Area decreased by87.713×10~8 yuan,from 2010.By 2020,it has been reduced by 160.741×10~8 yuan.In terms of spatial changes,in the entire Greater Bay Area,the ESV in Zhaoqing is higher,while in Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuhai,Hong Kong,Macau and other cities,ESV is lower.Among all land types,forest land has the largest contribution rate to ESV,followed by cultivated land.From the perspective of spatial correlation,the spatial distribution of ESV clearly shows correlation,and the spatial correlation is continuously increasing.（3）The Geographic Weighted Regression model（GWR model）is used to analyze the impact of terrain and slope on the ecosystem service value of the GBA.The results found that:from the topographic factor regression parameter table in each year,it can be seen that the Local R2 value is above 0.85,indicating that topography has a large impact on ESV.The red area in the figure indicates the strongest impact.The main land types in this area include forest land,arable land and water areas,as well as land-water crisscross zones.By 2020,the red area in the figure has become more and more obvious,and the red area is getting bigger and bigger,which shows that the impact of terrain on ESV is gradually increasing;This study uses SPSS software to explore the correlation analysis and principal component analysis between ESV and social economic factors.The results found that:ESV changes in the Greater Bay Area are negatively correlated with industrial sulfur dioxide emissions,industrial smoke and dust emissions,and the rate of decrease in energy consumption per 10,000yuan of GDP.This indicates that socio-economic factors will affect the regional ESV to a certain extent,especially in the urban agglomeration area,human activities have a strong interference with ESV,resulting in increasing environmental pressure.Therefore,the evolution of ESV will be disturbed by the natural environment and human activities.The influence of natural factors and ESV is a long-term control factor,while human activities are short-term disturbances.The construction of urban ecological civilization must pay attention to the adjustment of the industrial structure,control the discharge of pollutants,strengthen the construction of urban gardens,and increase the rate of urban greening,so that the symbiosis between man and nature can be realized.（4）This study uses the Markov model to predict land use changes and ESV evolution trends in the Greater Bay Area in 2030.Compared with ESV in 2020（1918.760×10~8 yuan）,the predicted value in 2030 reaches 2098.155×10~8 yuan,an increase of 179.395×10~8 yuan.the changes in the contribution of various types of ecosystem services are mainly the increase of arable land and forest land,and the decrease of water area and construction land. |
PDF Full Text Request