Research On Structural Effect Decomposition And Driving Factors Of China's Carbon Dioxide Emission

Under the background of global warming and China’s"dual-carbon"goal,how to achieve the"win-win"between carbon emission reduction and economic development has become an urgent problem to be solved.In view of this,this paper select the panel data from30 provinces in China（except Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan）from 2005 to 2019 to explore the structural effects and driving factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions based on the time series decomposition and the statistical analysis theory of panel data.First of all,this paper innovatively selects technology selection index TCI（Technology Choice Index）into the LMDI（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index）decomposition method,builds the Chinese carbon dioxide emissions structure effect decomposition framework,and quantitatively studies the Chinese carbon dioxide emissions TCI effect,industrial employment effect,economic distribution effect,industrial energy consumption effect,the proportion of industrial energy effect,energy structure,carbon emissions factor effect and economic scale effect.K-means clustering analysis shows that spatial agglomeration of CO₂emissions in China.And then,in order to clarify the causes and mechanism of the spatial agglomeration of carbon dioxide emissions in China,this paper establishes the SDM（Spatial Durbin model）of China’s carbon dioxide emissions,and discusses the driving factors of carbon dioxide emissions from the national and regional perspective,in order to provide reference for the government to formulate carbon emission reduction policies.The specific conclusions are as follows:（1）At the national level,the increase of the contribution value of economic scale effect and industrial energy proportion effect is the dominant effect of promoting carbon dioxide emissions,while the reduction of TCI effect and industrial energy consumption effect suppress carbon dioxide emissions.（2）At the provincial level,TCI as the core factor drives the carbon dioxide emissions but suppresses the carbon dioxide emissions;the improvement of economic development level promotes the carbon dioxide emissions of the province and adjacent provinces;the intensity of foreign direct investment and the proportion of coal energy structure promote the carbon dioxide emissions of the province,but the radiation effect of adjacent provinces.（3）Regional heterogeneity of TCI:the association between TCI and CO₂emissions in the Eastern region is not significant,TCI in the Western region is significantly positively associated with CO₂emissions.However,TCI in the Central region is significantly negatively associated with CO₂emissions.An important policy implication for the study presented in this paper is that eliminating structural distortions according to local conditions,especially TCI distortions,to follow the comparative advantage of factor endowment,is the starting point for China to achieve low-carbon and green development.