Spatial And Temporal Distribution Of Carbon Emission In Africa And Driving Forces

In the background of rapid socio-economic development,heavy industry and manufacturing have become key development targets for developing countries to improve their national social and economic strength.However,the single-minded pursuit of economic development in many countries and regions has caused the problem of ecological damage and a surge in carbon emissions,which is a challenge to the global sustainable development goals.Carbon dioxide emissions and the driving force elements are a system of mutual influence.The study of the spatial and temporal layout of carbon emissions and the regression relationship between them can obtain the influence mode and scope of the driving force on carbon emissions,which helps to take measures for the corresponding driving force elements to curb the growth of carbon emissions.It provides theoretical reference and experimental basis for achieving the goal of energy saving and emission reduction,and this is of great scientific significance for achieving the sustainable development of countries and regions.In this study,DMSP night light and carbon emission statistics are used to invert the carbon emission grid in African regions,and economic,demographic,environmental and urbanization data are used as driving factor indicators.56 countries and regions in Africa are characrized as the study area to explore the spatial-temporal distribution of carbon emissions and the regression-coupling coordination relationship.Firstly,based on the night light and carbon emission statistics,the African carbon emission grid is constructed with the help of linear regression model and logistic regression model fitting results,on which the change of carbon emission in Africa from2000 to 2012 is analyzed,and the univariate global and local Moran’s Ⅰ methods are used to experiment the spatial clustering effect of carbon emission.Secondly,Africa at the continental scale is divided into five regions: north,east,south,west and central,and the relationship between carbon emissions and driving forces in the five regions is analyzed with the help of the extended STIRPAT model and two-stage least squares method,and the level of coordination and synchronization and coupling between carbon emissions and driving force subsystems in each region are studied by using the coupling coordination degree model.Finally,five typical countries South Africa,Egypt,Nigeria,Angola,and Zimbabwe are selected at the national scale.The STIRPAT model is also used to analyze the regression relationship between carbon emissions and driving forces in the typical countries.Meanwhile,the regression relationship between GDP,population and carbon emissions in space was analyzed by using the geographically weighted regression model（GWR）.And the relevant characteristics of the five countries were also summarized and classified.The following conclusions are drawn from this article:（1）In both national and regional perspectives,carbon emissions in Africa are in a growing process,and carbon emissions vary greatly between countries;consistent with economic strength,carbon emissions show a distribution pattern of "developed in the north and south and backward in the center",and there are high value clusters in "developed regions" and low value clusters in "developing regions".（2）The STIRPAT method can well reflect the relationship between carbon emissions and driving forces,but shows different correlations at the continental and national scales;to a certain extent,the economic development of better-developed northern,western and southern Africa will suppress carbon emissions,while the eastern and central Africa do the opposite;the single-core compact and multi-core decentralized urban forms have different directions of action on carbon emissions,with specific positive and negative correlations has little relationship with national economic strength;at the national scale,South Africa,Nigeria,and Zimbabwe are suitable for the development of multi-core urban form,while Egypt and Angola are suitable for single-core compact development.（3）The coupling degree of carbon emission and driving force subsystem has been at a high level that they have a strong mutual influence relationship,but there are abrupt changes in 2003 and 2009;all regions in Africa develop in the direction of health coordination,and all go through confrontation period to high coordination coupling period,while the less developed eastern part goes through the development process of coordination-lagging-reconciliation.（4）The spatial correlation between GDP,population and carbon emission has two cases: firstly,the high value aggregation region of carbon emission is negatively correlated with the first two,and the low value aggregation region is positively correlated,with South Africa,Nigeria and Zimbabwe as typical representatives;secondly,the high value aggregation region of carbon emission is positively correlated with the first two,and the low value aggregation region is negatively correlated,with Egypt and Angola as typical representatives.