Changes In The Value Of Ecosystem Services In The Bosten Lake Basin And The Driving Forces

Ecosystem services are the basis for human survival and development,and are essential to human well-being as they provide the goods and services that humans need.The valuation of ecosystem services and the analysis of their drivers are relevant to the ecological security and economic development of watersheds,but the excessive human claims on ecosystems have led to a serious degradation of ecosystem services.Using the Bosten Lake basin as the study area,this paper assesses the value of ecosystem services in the basin and analyses the trade-off and synergistic relationships among its various ecosystem services based on four periods of Bosten Lake basin land use data from 1995-2018,using the ecosystem service valuation model,the ecosystem service trade-off synergy model（ESTD）,and correlation analysis.Ten indicators were selected for DEM,slope,annual precipitation,average annual temperature,potential evapotranspiration,distance from water systems,proportion of built-up land area,distance from roads,distance from railways,and proportion of cultivated land area,and the driving factors were analysed using geographic probes,with the following main findings.（1）The total value of ecosystem services in the basin in 1995,2005,2010 and 2018 was557.428 respectively×10~8yuan,553.399 yuan×10~8yuan 562.846×10~8yuan,551.893 yuan×10~8yuan.Among them,the biggest change was from 2010 to 2018,with a change rate of-1.946%,a decrease of 10.958×10~8yuan.（2）In terms of the value of individual ecosystem services,the magnitude of the contribution of each function to the value of ecosystem services in the basin from 1995-2018 is:waste treatment>water supply>soil conservation>biodiversity conservation>climate regulation>recreation and culture>gas regulation>food production>raw materials.In terms of the different ecosystem types,grassland and watershed contribute relatively more to the ecological service value of the Bosten Lake basin and are important land use types in the basin,with watershed ecosystem service value being the highest.（3）The trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in the Bosten Lake basin were analysed using the Ecosystem Services Trade-offs and Synergies model（ESTD）,and the results show that synergies are gradually becoming more dominant.The correlation analysis of the various ecosystem service functions in the Bosten Lake basin shows that the synergistic relationship accounts for 61.11%and the trade-off relationship accounts for 38.89%,with the synergistic relationship dominating and the strongest correlation being the biodiversity conservation function and the gas regulation function.（4）The results of the geographic detector,which was used to detect the drivers of the value of ecosystem services in the basin,showed that the drivers of the single factor were,in descending order,DEM>potential evapotranspiration>mean annual temperature>annual precipitation>slope>distance from roads>distance from water systems>distance from railways>proportion of built-up land area>proportion of cultivated land area.The interaction between DEM and potential evapotranspiration contributed relatively more to the value of watershed ecosystem services in the multi-factor interaction-driven sounding,and the value of watershed ecosystem services was mainly influenced by the interaction of natural and human factors.