Research On Model Of Subway Operation Accident’s Cause Under Small Sample Condition

Throughout the history of urban transportation development around the world,subway has become the backbone of urban transportation because of its finiteness that is not tied to the ground space.And also because it powered by electricity,has the large transportation capacity and environmentally friendly.However,as a complex and open system,the subway has many risks.Once these risks are triggered to form an accident,it is difficult to predict the loss of people’s property and life threats.Therefore,this paper studies the theory of the cause of subway accidents to reveal the mechanism of the accident,in order to provide strategies and methods for improving the safety of subway operations.The beginning of this article analyzes and reviews the current research status of domestic and foreign subway operation accident causes and accident cause mechanisms in other fields,and chooses the Bayesian network model method that applies the small sample uncertainty reasoning of subway operation accidents to establish the reasoning model.Combining relevant rail transit standards and research to further divide subway operation accidents and accident-causing factors,collect subway operation accident samples through multiple channels,and obtain a small-scale,random,non-random missing sample set;Accident samples are the basis to excavate the relationship between accident causes and accidents.Then,based on the basic algorithm and theory of Bayesian network,the Bayesian network model of the cause of subway operation accidents is established by considering the nature of the sample set,combining the Bootstrap sampling algorithm,K2 algorithm,EM algorithm,and D-S evidence theory;Finally,based on the Bayesian network model,causal reasoning,diagnostic reasoning and sensitivity analysis are carried out,and suggestions for subway operation safety management are proposed from the perspective of accident prevention based on the reasoning results.This paper studies the reasoning problem of subway operation accidents based on accident small samples,provides theoretical basis for scientific prevention and control of accident losses,and has guiding significance for subway operation safety management.