Study On CO₂ And Air Pollutant Emissions In Yangtze River Delta Region Based On Industry Chain Analysis

With the rapid development of the economy since reform and opening up,China has faced an increasing environmental pressure of energy saving,emission reduction,and air quality improvement.Belong to the most economically developed regions in China,the Yangtze River Delta（YRD,including Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Anhui provinces）experiences heavy air pollution with enormous emissions of CO₂.In YRD,the high energy efficiency and stringent pollution control measures have strengthened the end-of-pipe treatment,thereby hugely increasing the marginal abatement cost.Hence,YRD must seek new potential for emission reduction.Path to the emission reduction of CO₂and air pollutants while economic development has become a frontier topic in the field of atmospheric environmental risk management,which is also essential to realize China’s vision of peak emission and neutrality of carbon.Firstly,based on the input-output table,this study quantitatively analyzed the transfer characteristics and inter-annual change trends of implied emissions of CO₂and air pollutants from regional trade in YRD in 2007 and 2012.Secondly,utilizing the industrial correlation coefficient method,the key industries and their effects of emissions reduction in YRD were analyzed from three perspectives:forward correlation,backward correlation,and coordinated correlation.Then,applying Structural Decomposition Analysis（SDA）,this study quantified the contribution of drivers to emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants in YRD,particularly in key industries.Finally,policy suggestions were provided for measure formulations of joint containment of CO₂ and air pollutant emissions in YRD.The main findings of this study are exhibited as follows.From 2007 to 2012,the total transfer of CO₂ emissions caused by trades between regions in YRD decreased from 118 million tons to 54 million tons.The emission of SO₂ and PM_2.5 in YRD was greater on the consumption side than the production side,while the emission of CO₂ and NO_x was the contrary.Emissions of air pollutants on the production side and transfers of CO₂ emissions from all provinces in YRD decreased from 2007 to 2012.Notably,the hugest CO₂ emissions transfer in YRD was the path from non-metallic mining properties in Anhui province to the construction industry in Jiangsu province.Trades in YRD,caused differences in net emissions of air pollutants between provinces.In particular,Anhui province was the net exporter of SO₂,NOx,and PM_2.5 emissions,while Shanghai and Zhejiang provinces were net importers of most pollutants emissions.In YRD,the key industries forwardly related（supply relationship）to the emission reduction of CO₂ included the production and supply of electricity and heat in Shanghai and Anhui provinces and the mining and washing of coal in Anhui province.The key industries forwardly related to the emission reduction of air pollutants include the production of the non-metallic minerals in Zhejiang province and the processing and coking of petroleum and the industry of nuclear fuel in Jiangsu province.Most of these key industries belong to energy or raw material industries,located upstream of the industrial chain in the national economy.In terms of demand relationship,the key industry backwardly related to the emission reduction of CO₂ is the construction industry in Anhui province.The key industry backwardly related to emission reduction of air pollutants is the construction industry in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces.Besides,the textile industry in Jiangsu province is the key industry backwardly related to the emission reduction of SO₂ in Zhejiang province.The increase in the terminal demand of these industries will lead to more emissions from other production industries.From the perspective of joint containment of CO₂ and air pollutants emissions,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Anhui provinces have the largest marginal and absolute influence coefficients of the construction industry,which is the key industry backwardly related to emission reduction.In terms of drivers,firstly,increasing demand contributed to more total CO₂and air pollutant emissions in the YRD,but curbed SO₂ emissions in special industries（production and supply of electricity and heat）.Secondly,the emission intensity reduced the emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants in the YRD but promoted the CO₂emissions of the production industry of non-metallic minerals in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces.Thirdly,technology investments increased emissions in Shanghai,Zhejiang,and Anhui provinces.Fourthly,the demand structure had a small impact on emissions in YRD.Following advice can be considered in policies formulation of emission reduction in YRD.For one thing,different emission reduction actions should be taken for provinces at different economic development levels.For Shanghai and Zhejiang provinces,it is of priority to cut demand for carbon-intensive products,adjust the consumption structure,and prefer products and raw materials with lower emission intensity.Anhui province should focus on emission reduction with technology,developing more effective measures for promoting sustainable energy and cleaner production.For another,the key industries for emission reduction located in upstream of the industrial chain in YRD should pay attention to the selection of raw materials and intermediate products to build a low-carbon industrial system,improve the efficiency of pollutant removal,and develop clean energy.Besides,it is essential for the key industries driven by demand to cut demand by establishing low-carbon consumption awareness,optimizing low-emission consumption structure,reducing consumption of products with high carbon and pollutants emissions,and selecting suppliers adopting low-carbon labels and environment-friendly products.