Study On Shanghai Landuse Evolution Of The Numerical Simulation And The Impact On Population, Economic And Environmental In Shanghai

Urban is the area that population is concentrated, commercial and industry are developed , a high degree of civilization, transport and communications equipment are completed. Urbanization process ,On the one hand, promotes the city and its radiation region's economic and social development,and on the other hand, due to the concentration of the urbanization process , population density improved and industrial and urban infrastructure construction accelerated. A direct result is that a large number of agricultural land changed into non-agricultural Land, urban and rural land conflicts have become increasingly prominent, and caused a series of ecological problems. Therefore, study on the process of urban expansion and land use/cover change is of great importance for solving the contradiction between urban and rural land use, development of rational land-use planning,and helpful for the realization of sustainable urban development.Urban is a typical space complex system. Its development is highly complex, and relying solely on qualitative and quantitative indicators can't be described effectively . It needs a method to simulate a complex system. Urban land use / cover evolution model can effectively descript, simulate, analize and forecast urbanization process , which would provide a powerful tool for land planning.In this paper, the theory, structure, characteristics and applied research of cellular automata (CA) were first illustrated. Cellular automata are systems of cells interacting in simple ways but generating complex overall behavior, capable of simulating the spatial and temporal characteristics of complex system, having powerful modeling capabilities, which can simulate complicated urban development patterns by local rules of the overall situation. Cellular automaton model has the space capacity and dynamic features, which is suited to simulate the process of urbanization and land-use change process.They are widely used in the simulation of urban development simulation and land use / land cover changes.In this paper, an existing urban grow model based on CA, SLEUTH has been employed to simulate the urban growth of Shanghai metropolitan area by setting different scenarios. To make SLEUTH applicable to Shanghai, a number of calibrations should be done for the model. The SLEUTH is calibrated with historical data that are extracted from a time series of satellite images. After calibrations, SLEUTH is used for "backcasting" of urban extent and land use/cover change with spatiotemporal interpolation during 1991-2004. The simulated results are analyzed with historical data. On this basis,SLEUTH used as a forecasting tool to simulate the process of LUCC during 2005-2020 respectively under three scenarios. SD model builds up a relationship between farmland and the first industrial output and construction landuse and the tertiary industrial output by SLEUTH simulation results as the driving factor. It provides a method to study the impact the landuse change played on the population, economic, environmental and other studies in Shanghai.Based on the research above, this paper comes to the following conclusions:(1) SLEUTH model can describe and simulate the process of urbanization and LUCC in Shanghai metropolitan area quite well after calibration.(2) Study the impact the historical simulation results of the landuse by SLEUTH model played on the population, the urban green space, economic and environmental indicators ,through building up the link between SLEUTH model and SD model. And analyzed the relationship between statistics and the simulation results of SD model. The results show that the simulation result by SLEUTH model as the drive of SD model is effective.(3) The results of the simulations of different scenarios indicate that the scenario A of controlling urban expansion of Shanghai based on ecological protection restrictions will lead to a higher efficiency of land use ; the scenario B based on the traffic network development will lead to the expansion of urban construction land and a higher pollution discharged by industry.(4) Integration of SLEUTH and SD model will make both SLEUTH and SD model more practical, and also enrich the theory of urban model and CA model study.