Forecasting Of Fossil Energy-related Emission Level In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei（BTH）region is one of China’s important economic centers.It has developed into the third largest economic circle in China after the"Yangtze River Delta"and the"Pearl River Delta".However,air pollution in this region is more serious than the other two economic circles.Studies have shown that the main cause of pollution in this area is the high intensity and high concentration of atmospheric pollutants emitted by the consumption of fossil energy.Therefore,forecasting the level of fossil energy pollution emissions in the region is of great significance for alleviating the ecological pressure in the region and realizing the sustainable development of the society and economy.The main work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,based on the fossil energy pollutant emission data of the BTH area from 2003 to 2017,the entropy weight method is used to evaluate the pollutant emission level.Next,the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology model（STIRPAT）is used to fit the relationship between pollutant emission levels and their related socio-economic indicators.Then,the partial least-squares regression model（PLS）is used to estimate the parameters of the STIRPAT model.Finally,based on the trend extrapolation of the independent variables of the STIRPAT model using the mixed trend extrapolation model,a forecast was made on the level of fossil energy pollutant emissions in the region.The empirical analysis shows that:Firstly,the fitting curve of the air pollution emission level reached its peak in 2015,and then it fluctuated and declined slowly.Secondly,air pollution emissions in 2025 will be reduced to 2007 level.Thirdly,in terms of the impact on changes in air pollution levels,industrial waste gas emissions play a decisive role.The impact of smoke and dust emissions is much smaller but still greater than the impact of SO₂ emissions.Fourth,the future slowdown of economic development will help improve air quality,but the rapid population growth in Hebei and Tianjin will hinder this improvement.In order to control the future emissions of fossil energy pollution in the region,the following suggestions are made:（1）Adjust the industrial structure.Restrict the development of heavy industrial enterprises with low added value and high pollution,promote the implementation of cleaner production processes,and strengthen technological progress in the industrial sector.（2）Reduce energy consumption intensity.On the one hand,it can promote the progress of coal utilization technology and improve the efficiency of coal utilization.On the other hand,it can actively develop new energy sources that replace coal.（3）Optimize the energy consumption structure.Under the condition of ensuring supply,the scale of natural gas utilization can be actively expanded and cleaner and more efficient heating methods can be adopted.（4）Give full play to the leading role of the party and government agencies,business departments,and other public agencies,formulate relevant laws and regulations,increase publicity,and let the concept of green development take root in the hearts of the people.