Conservation Effectiveness Assessment And Influencing Factors Analysis Of National Nature Reserves In Qinling Mountains

Protected areas(PAs)play an important role in the protection of biodiversity and ecosystem services(ES).The quantitative evaluation of the conservation effectiveness of PAs has always been a hot topic in conservation biology.However,there is a lack of systematic quantitative evaluation method for the conservation effectiveness of PAs on biodiversity and ES,and the factors affecting the conservation effectiveness are not clear at present,which is not conducive to the development of targeted protection measures.Therefore,taking Qinling Mountains as an example,this paper evaluated the conservation effectiveness of 19 National Nature Reserves(NNRs)in Qinling Mountains between 2010 and 2015 from two aspects of biodiversity and ES,and identified the main factors influencing the conservation effectiveness from three aspects:natural factors,management factors and threat factors.The main research methods and conclusions are as follows:(1)In terms of conservation effectiveness of biodiversity,this paper predicted the suitable distribution range of 21 species of rare and endangered animals and plants in Qinling Mountains based on Max Ent model,identified the core habitats of rare and endangered species using ZONATION model,calculated the human pressure index(HPI)of the core habitats of rare and endangered species inside and outside the NNRs in 2010 and 2015,and made a horizontal and vertical comparative analysis,so as to evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the NNRs on the core habitats.The results showed that the HPI of the core habitats of NNRs in Qinling Mountains remained at a low level between 2010 and 2015,but the HPI of most of the NNRs(78.95%)showed an increasing trend,and the management and control of human disturbance still need to be strengthened.However,compared with the change of HPI in core habitats of rare and endangered species outside the NNRs between 2010 and2015,most(53.33%)of the NNRs played an effective role in reducing human pressure under the background of increased HPI in core habitats inside and outside the NNRs.(2)In terms of the conservation effectiveness of ES,based on In VEST model,this paper calculated the three leading ES of water retention,soil conservation and carbon sequestration in Qinling Mountains in 2010 and 2015,and evaluated the conservation effectiveness of ES in the NNRs by pairing analysis of ES inside and outside the NNRs through propensity score matching method.The results showed that the reduction of water retention and soil conservation in Qinling Mountains from 2010 to 2015 was obvious,but the reduction of water retention and soil conservation was slowed down by NNRs;From 2010 to 2015,the carbon sequestration in Qinling Mountains increased significantly,and the carbon sequestration in NNRs increased more than that outside the NNRs.Most of the NNRs played a positive role in protecting the three dominant ES.(3)In terms of influencing factors,we selected the factors that potentially affect the conservation effectiveness of biodiversity and ES,including natural factors,management factors and threat factors;Based on random forest regression,the main influencing factors of the conservation effectiveness of the NNRs were identified by taking the conservation effectiveness of the NNRs in the core habitats of rare and endangered species,water retention,soil conservation and carbon sequestration services as dependent variables.The results showed that the shape index and average elevation of NNRs played a leading role in the protection of the core habitats of the reserves,and the number of patrol personnel also played a certain role in the protection of the core habitats of the reserves.The change of precipitation played a leading role in the protection of water retention and carbon sequestration services;Temperature change played a leading role in soil conservation services.Management factors also had a certain impact on the conservation effectiveness of ES.Funding investment had the greatest impact on the conservation effectiveness of water retention and carbon sequestration services,and the number of patrol personnel had the greatest impact on the conservation effectiveness of soil conservation services.(4)Based on the research results,this paper suggested that NNRs in Qinling Mountains should further increase funding investment and the number of patrol personnel to strengthen the control of human pressure,so as to improve the conservation effectiveness of biodiversity and ES.At the same time,we should regularly evaluate the conservation effectiveness of different types and levels of NNRs,and further explore the mechanism of the main factors affecting the conservation effectiveness,so as to continuously improve the conservation effectiveness of NNRs for biodiversity and ecosystem services.