Study On The Price Fluctuation Risk Of China’s Carbon Market

With the continuous advancement of industrialization,the environmental problems caused by the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide become more and more serious.In order to curb the further deterioration of environmental problems,it has become the consensus of all countries in the world to solve environmental problems with economic means,and carbon emission trading system has gradually become one of the most effective means of emission reduction.Countries around the world have begun to establish carbon emission trading markets to promote their own low-carbon development through market-based means.In order to achieve the goal of reaching the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,China has now entered an important stage of transformation from regional carbon market layout to national carbon market promotion.In this process,the risk of carbon price fluctuation has certain particularity,so the management and control of the risk must be paid attention to.On the basis of combing previous studies on carbon market,this paper firstly summarizes relevant theories to consolidate the research foundation of this paper,analyzes the development status of carbon market at home and abroad from a macro perspective,and summarizes the main problems existing in China’s carbon market at the present stage.Secondly according to the characteristics of the carbon market development in our country,the selection of appropriate empirical model and designed the carbon market price volatility risk research plan,based on factors such as volume,the market active carbon market in China can be divided into three categories,select the regional carbon market transaction data,through the wavelet analysis to remove the interference "noise" of the original data,reduce the invalid information’s influence on the subsequent modeling,And based on GARCH model combined with VaR and CVaR methods to quantify the risk of carbon market price fluctuations.The empirical results show that each regional carbon market in China has a strong risk of price fluctuation,and each market has significant differentiation characteristics.Withthe decrease of trading volume and activity of carbon trading,the range of risk fluctuation from the first type of market to the third type of market is getting bigger and bigger.The first type of market risk control is the best,the third type of market risk volatility,there are multiple risk mutation points,price volatility risk appears many cliff type changes.Among all the markets,Guangdong carbon market has the best risk management.In addition to large fluctuations in the early stage of the market,price fluctuation risks gradually converged and leveled off in the later stage.Moreover,since the start of the construction of a national carbon market,all markets have been sensitive to this,and the risk of price fluctuation has again fluctuated greatly.Therefore,risk control has become an issue that must be paid attention to in the process of nationalization of carbon trading.Finally,in view of the results of empirical research,from the government’s macroeconomic regulation and control and the carbon market itself to adjust two angles to reduce China’s carbon market price volatility risk Suggestions to consummate the policy laws and regulations construction,improve the carbon trading transparency,improve the risk early warning system,and promote carbon financial product diversification,strengthen cooperation with Banks and other financial institutions,such as policy Suggestions in order to contribute to the advancement of national carbon trading,We will promote high-quality and sustainable development of the low-carbon economy.