Study On The Production Decision Of Enterprises Based On Different Risk Measurement Methods Under Uncertain Market Price Of Emission Rights

With the increasingly serious environmental problems,reducing pollutants has become an important social development task in China.Enterprises are a key source of emissions and the focus of the task of reducing pollution.Emission trading mechanism is based on the market of environmental management means,emission trading mechanism,there are large difference between different enterprises on the pollution control costs,companies can trade with each other pollution index to reduce to cut cost or increase revenue,so under the emission trading system research enterprise production decision optimization problems has the very strong practical significance.The optimization decisions of enterprises include production decisions,reduction decisions and trading decisions.Under the influence of market mechanism and external unstable environment,the trading market of emission rights is unstable,and the trading system of emission rights is also full of various uncertainties.Furthermore,enterprise decision optimization problem can also be understood as a risk decision problem.As the main body of decision-making,enterprises tend to take risks into their own consideration and do not fully follow the risk-neutral hypothesis.On actual policymakers enterprise decision may deviate from the optimal decision under the risk neutral,using three methods of risk measurement,this paper studied how to effectively measure the price of sewage’s discharge right uncertainty caused by the enterprise decision-making risk,is established considering the risk decision optimization model,analyzed the emissions trading market price enterprise’s production decision under uncertain optimization problems,and through the Matlab numerical analysis the following conclusions:First,from the production operation level,through the establishment of specific production decision optimization model under the market price of sewage’s discharge right,extracted the enterprise in the product production,pollution reduction decision behavior and the correlation between price,comprehensive enterprise under emissions trading in the link of the optimal decision-making behavior,analyzes the emissions trading and the market price mechanism,the influence mechanism of enterprise production decisions.The results show that the variation of the coefficient of pollution production and the coefficient of cost reduction have a complex influence on the production decision and its result.Second,introduces the means,variances,CVaR,and average-the basic content of CVaR concept and theory,and then established based on the mean-variance,CVaR,and average-right of CVaR price uncertainty situations the production decision optimization model of the enterprise,according to the model demonstrates the market price of sewage’s discharge right under uncertain situation considering risk optimal decision of enterprise and its characteristics,and the external scene elements change on optimal decision and its influence on the result of the optimization,the results show that as price followers of the enterprise,will make a reasonable response to price changes at the micro level,if the price of sewage’s discharge right is reduced,Enterprises can increase production,reduce the level of cuts,and increase pollution emissions;If the price of pollutant discharge rights increases,the opposite will be true.Finally,the process characteristics of each risk theory method applied to risk decision problem are summarized.The mean-variance model takes the mean and variance of the decision-maker’s return into the linear objective function at the same time,which is convenient for quantitative analysis and intuitive results.Compared with VaR,CVaR can study tail risk,and can be simplified into linear constraint by linear transformation when calculating,which simplifies the calculation process and has more intuitive meaning.However,this method is conservative because when CVaR is used to measure risk,the expected profit cannot be taken into account,and the emphasis is placed on the average value of the return lower than a given level and the case higher than that level is ignored.Therefore,the use of mean-cvar can give consideration to both expected profit and conditional risk value.