Estimation Of Embodied Carbon In China’s Forest Products Trade And Research On Its Influencing Factors

As a large forest product trading country,China’s trade embodied carbon issue has received increasing attention.This paper conducts research on the estimation and influencing factors of embodied carbon in China’s forest products trade,which is helpful for a clear understanding of the embodied carbon emissions,changing trends and reasons of the forest products industry trade,and provides a basis for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies.Has a certain practical significance.This paper firstly analyzes current situation of China’s forest product trade,then establishes a non-competitive input-output model to measure and analyze import embodied carbon,export embodied carbon,net export embodied carbon and processing trade embodied carbon of China’s forest products from 2001 to 2017.The results tell that:(1)The direct carbon emission factor and the complete carbon emission factor of sawn timber,veneer,particle board,fiberboard,plywood,wooden furniture,paper and cardboard showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing from 2001 to2017,and the complete carbon emission factor of each product is greater than its direct carbon emission factor.(2)On the whole,the total embodied carbon in the import and export and processing trade of the seven types of products first increased year by year and then decreased in a fluctuating manner.Among the seven types of products,the embodied carbon content of the import trade of wood furniture is the least,the embodied carbon content of the export trade of sawn timber is the least,and that of the processing trade of particle board is the lowest.The embodied carbon of import trade of paper and paperboard,the embodied carbon of export trade and the embodied carbon of processing trade are all the highest.Based on the calculation results,LMDI index decomposition model was established to explore the impact of the three factors of trade scale,trade structure,and technological progress on the embodied carbon emissions of China’s forest product trade.The results show that:(1)From 2001 to 2017,the main factor leading to the increase in embodied carbon emissions from the import trade of sawn timber and wood furniture was the trade structure.The increase in embodied carbon emissions from the import trade of particleboard,fiberboard and plywood is mainly due to the positive promotion of the scale of trade.The key reason for the reduction of embodied carbon emissions from the import trade of veneer,paper and paperboard is the technological progress.(2)From 2001 to 2017,the reduction in embodied carbon emissions from the export trade of sawn timber,veneer,paper and cardboard was mainly due to the suppression of the technological progress.The main reason for the increase in the embodied carbon emissions of the export trade of particleboard,fiberboard and plywood is the positive promotion of the trade scale.The main factor for the increase in embodied carbon emissions from the export trade of wood furniture is the positive impact of the trade structure.(3)From 2001 to2017,change in the trade structure and technological progress are the reasons for the reduction in embodied carbon emissions from the processing trade of sawn timber,plywood,and particleboard,among which the trade structure contributed more.The increase in embodied carbon emissions from processing trade of veneer products is mainly due to the positive promotion and change of trade scale.The reason for the reduction in the embodied carbon emissions of the processing trade of fiberboard and wood furniture products is the negative impact of the trade structure.Technological progress is the reason for the reduction of embodied carbon emissions from the processing trade of paper and paperboard.Based on the calculation results and analysis of influencing factors,this article offers policy recommendations,including optimizing energy consumption structure,encouraging the development and utilization of clean energy,optimizing product trade structure,and enhancing carbon emission reduction awareness.