Research Of Route Selection Of Liquefied Natural Gas Road Transportation Based On Risk Analysis

In recent years,as the representative of green,low-carbon,and efficient clean energy,natural gas is entering a period of rapid development.Not only has been widely used in power generation,urban gas,industrial fuels,but also gradually penetrate into the field of automotive fuels,which has led to the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas tankers.But the LNG tanker transport safety issues have become increasingly prominent.As LNG has flammable and explosive risk,once the accident occurred in the transport caused by leakage,prone to fire,explosion.Therefore,in order to control the risk of transport,it is very important to study the route selection method of LNG road transportation from the perspective of risk analysis.Based on the statistical analysis of the LNG tanker transport accidents,this paper completed the risk analysis in the process of road transportation,and the possible consequences of the accident are simulated and analyzed.On this basis,the route selection evaluation model of LNG road transportation is constructed.The main contents are as follows:1.Collected 81 cases of LNG road transport accidents in the past ten years,this paper has analyzed the accidents from three aspects: accident characteristics,accident causes and accident consequences,to get the general rules and characteristics of LNG tanker accidents.From five aspects: personnel,vehicle,road,environment and management to identify and analyze the factors that affect the safety of LNG tanker transportation.2.Combined with the accident case statistics,the binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the correlation between the risk factors and the accident patterns.Decision making trial and evaluation laboratory method was used to determine the degree of interaction between influencing factors,and through the weight of road factors and environmental factors to fix the basic accident rate.3.The factors influencing the diffusion concentration of LNG were simulated by MATLAB software.The results show that the weaker the atmospheric stability,the smaller the wind speed,the lower the height of the leakage source and the more rough the ground,the less conducive to the diffusion of LNG.In addition,the ALOHA software was used to simulate the jet fire,vapor cloud explosion and boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion accidents.The results show that jet fires and vapor cloud explosions can cause some injuries and property damage,and that the boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion can cause a lot of death and property damage.4.According to the principle of risk engineering,the jet fire,vapors cloud explosion,and boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion accident probability calculation model has been established.Correspondingly,the calculation model of the accident influence range and the influence number also has been established.At the same time,based on acceptable risk criteria is proposed to complete the route selection.Finally,combined with the reality in Guangzhou to verify the effectiveness of this model.