The Safety Effects Of The Discrepancies And Accesses Between Adjacent Traffic Analysis Zones

With the rapid development of economy and urbanization,the zonal-level traffic connection becomes closer,and the problem of traffic safety becomes more severe.Based on the accident data,road network data and socio-demographic data of London City,this paper use Arc GIS software and Python to carry on the statistical analysis.The traffic exposure variables are also estimated based on the gravity model.According to these data,the joint probability model is used to model the severity of traffic accidents.In addition,Bayesian conditional auto regressive model is used to consider the spatial correlation of traffic accidents,and the above models is compared with each other.According to the results of the model,zones with greater discrepancies and more accesses from adjacent zones experience more crashes.In terms of traffic exposure,the number of road crossing has the most significant impact on the number of traffic accidents,and the risk of crossing low-level roads is greater.As for traffic safety model,the Bayes model used the number of accesses as the weight matrix is better than the that used 0-1 adjacency weight matrix.In order to improve the traffic safety level of the community,it is necessary to set up traffic signs and other safety measures on the boundary to guide and warn through vehicles.In addition,it is suggested to improve the crossing measures on low-level roads to reduce unsafe crossing behaviors.