| With the rapid development of China’s economy and the progress of science and technology,the application field of lead-acid batteries continues to expand.Lead-acid batteries are discarded as waste lead-acid batteries after completing the whole life cycle.Waste lead-acid batteries contain a variety of heavy metals and sulphuric acid,which will affect human health and ecological environment if not treated regularly.However,if treated regularly,it can be used as raw material for secondary lead industry,which provides strong support for China’s national policy of saving resources and developing sustainable development.In order to accurately and scientifically predict the production status of waste lead-acid batteries in China,this thesis focuses on the application fields of lead-acid batteries in a quantitative way,and the application fields are divided into four categories.Then,according to the state of use,it can also be divided into relative motion state,including starting and dynamic state,and relative static state,including communication reserve and energy storage.In the process of forecasting,Stanford forecasting model,improved consumption use model and consumption use model are selected,which were used to get the estimation of production and accumulation of waste lead-acid batteries in China from 1998 to 2017 based on historical data of lead-acid batteries used in various application fields,and then the production and accumulation of waste lead-acid batteries from 2018 to 2025 are calculated and analyzed by using time series prediction model.The prediction results of the output status of waste lead-acid batteries in China are as follows:1.The overall development of the production and accumulation of waste lead-acid batteries in the four application fields in China shows different ways of growth.Among them,the overall development of scrap lead-acid batteries for starter use shows a "two-stage" growth,reaching 21871294.94 k VAh by 2017,the overall development of the accumulation showed a "linear" growth,reaching 1773 7512.11 k VAh by 2017.The overall development of power waste lead-acid batteries production shows a "two-stage" pattern.The growth period is from 2007 to 2013,the decline period is from 2014 to 2017,and by 2017,it will reach 15506 904.68 k VAh,and the overall development of accumulation is "two-stage linear" and will reach 117982390.62 k VAh by 2017.The overall development of the production of communication spare lead-acid batteries showed a "two-stage" growth,reaching 7890710.04 k VAh by 2017,and the overall development of the cumulative amount showed a "two-stage linear" pattern,reaching 27180564.86 k VAh by 2017.The overall development of the production and accumulation of waste lead-acid batteries for energy storage showed a "linear" growth,and the growth rate was slow in 2006-2013.At this time,the production of waste lead-acid storage batteries mainly comes from wind power plants.After 2014,the output speed has increased because the rapid expansion of solar power plants has increased the production of waste lead-acid storage batteries.2.From 1998 to 2025,the overall trend of waste lead-acid batteries in China is to "grow first and then stabilize".By 2025,the production will reach 49097351.29 k VAh,and the cumulative production will reach 742499183.06 k VAh.The development trend of "growth first" is formed under the impetus of China’s economic,policy and technological parameters."Post-stability" is due to the fact that the number of lead-acid batteries will not fluctuate too much when the usage of lead-acid batteries in various application areas reaches a certain saturation.In the future,the research of lead-acid batteries will focus on the improvement of technology,so the waste will remain stable for a period of time.3.Reasonable suggestions are put forward for the production status and future development trend of waste lead-acid batteries in various application fields.First,the output of waste lead-acid batteries is increasing year by year,and attention should be paid to expanding the scope of recovery and ways of recovery.Secondly,the government should strictly control small workshop-type recycling enterprises,and regularly investigate and supervise whether the treatment of waste lead-acid batteries in enterprises meets the national requirements.We should continue to implement the relevant policies promulgated by the state on the recovery,disposal and refining of waste lead-acid batteries.Thirdly,with the development of social economy,people’s awareness of environmental protection should be continuously improved,and waste lead-acid batteries for household use should be sent to designated recycling places. |
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