Research On The Spatiotemporal Pattern Of Carbon Emissions And Emission Quotas In Zhejiang Province

This article first calculates the carbon emissions of the four sectors of energy activities,industrial production processes,waste treatment,and agricultural activities and forest carbon absorption in the cities of Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2015,and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province and the decoupling between carbon emissions and economic development status.Then,a STIRPAT model of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province is constructed to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province,and the scenario analysis technology is used to predict carbon emissions.Finally,the scenario forecast value is used to limit the total amount of carbon allowances,and the allocation of carbon allowances in 2030 in Zhejiang Province is obtained through the multi-index allocation method and the ZSG-DEA model,and four allocation schemes are obtained.The research contents of this paper include:1.Refined and summarized the research on carbon emission driving factors and carbon emission quotas at home and abroad,summarized systematically from theories,methods,and recent research progress results,and reviewed related research in the current academic field.Comprehensively elaborate the current research background,research significance and research basis of carbon emissions,and clarify the research content and purpose.The technical roadmap was used to explain the research process and the required research plan construction and optimization process,and to develop a complete implementation plan.2.Calculated the carbon emissions of four sectors of energy activities,industrial production processes,waste treatment,and agricultural activities and forest carbon absorption in the cities of Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2015,and analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province and the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic development.The results showed that the overall carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province was increasing.From the perspective of the carbon emission structure of Zhejiang Province,industrial carbon emissions were the main source of its carbon emissions.Industrial carbon emissions were divided into two stages.The first stage of industrial carbon emissions was generally increasing,and the proportion of industrial carbon emissions in total carbon emissions was on the rise,the second stage of industrial carbon emissions was decreasing,and the proportion of industrial carbon emissions in total carbon emissions had generally declined.Carbon emissions from construction industry,service industry,residential life,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishing,transportation,storage,cement production,waste treatment,and petroleum system were generally increasing.The proportion of carbon emissions from construction industry,transportation and storage,waste treatment,and petroleum systems to total carbon emissions was on the rise.Carbon emissions from rice cultivation and livestock management were decreasing,and their proportion in total carbon emissions was also decreasing.The dynamic changes of carbon emissions in Hangzhou,Huzhou,Jiaxing,Jinhua,Lishui,Ningbo,Quzhou,Shaoxing,and Taizhou can be roughly divided into three stages,that is,the early carbon emissions are small and the growth rate was slow;the medium-term carbon emissions increase rapidly;After the phase carbon peak,the growth rate slows down or even decreases.The dynamic changes of carbon emissions in Wenzhou and Zhoushan were generally characterized by rising fluctuations.Forest carbon absorption in all cities was increasing,but the proportion of forest carbon absorption in carbon emissions varies.Except for Lishui,the impact of forest carbon absorption on net carbon emissions in each city was small.3.Constructed a STIRPAT model of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province,analyzed the driving factors of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province,and predict carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province in combination with scenario analysis technology,with a view to providing a scientific and reasonable total amount limit for subsequent carbon emission quota analysis.The results showed that the total population,population urbanization rate,GDP per capita,and coal energy share contribute to the total carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province.The total population had the most significant effect,followed by coal energy share and population city.Rate of change,GDP per capita had the weakest effect.In 2030,Zhejiang Province ’s carbon emissions will be more scientific and reasonable as the total amount of carbon allowances.Zhejiang Province ’s carbon emissions in 2030 will be 479.26 million tons.4.Taked the carbon emissions of 2030 in Zhejiang Province as scenario 3 in Chapter 4 as the total limit,the carbon quota under the principle of fairness and feasibility was determined through the multi-index allocation method.Through the ZSG-DEA model,the carbon emission quota under the efficiency principle was obtained.Through the optimization of entropy method and ZSG-DEA model,comprehensive distribution scheme 1 and comprehensive distribution scheme 2 were obtained.Finally,the four carbon emission quota allocation schemes were compared and analyzed.The results showed that the overall differences between the four carbon quota allocation schemes were not large,and Hangzhou and Ningbo belong to the first echelon.Jiaxing,Shaoxing,Taizhou,Jinhua and Wenzhou belong to the second echelon.Huzhou,Lishui,Quzhou and Zhoushan belong to the third echelon.There was a large difference in the remaining carbon emission space of different cities under different distribution schemes,which indicates that the reduction pressures of different cities under different distribution schemes were quite different.From the comparative analysis of the four allocation schemes,it can be seen that the carbon quota under the principle of fairness and feasibility was fair,but the efficiency was the worst.Under the principle of efficiency,the carbon fairness was the worst,but it can achieve DEA effectiveness.Comprehensive distribution scheme 1was more fair than the carbon quota under the principle of efficiency,and more efficient than the carbon quota under the principle of fairness and feasibility.The second comprehensive distribution scheme can achieved DEA effectiveness,and the fairness was also good.