Research On Simulation Model Of Ship Passenger Evacuation Based On MSC.1/Circ.1533

The hidden danger brought by shipwreck and other accidents to the operation at sea has always been one of the most serious problems faced by human beings.Due to economic,human and other factors,the experimental research on ship personnel emergency evacuation is very limited,so it is particularly necessary to study the ship personnel evacuation model simulation method.In the process of researching evacuation model,in order to simulate the effect of pedestrians affected by the environment and other people in the real evacuation process as much as possible,many scholars use various methods to refine the key simulation factors of the model.Among these researches,most people use the cellular automata model to simulate the macro-evolution process of the ship crew movement,and use the social force model to simulate the effect of the force between pedestrian-pedestrian and pedestrian-environment.Each model has its advantages and disadvantages in simulation research.For instance,the cellular automata model can calculate efficiently but cannot describe the micro-effect between pedestrian-pedestrian and pedestrian-environment in detail,and the social force model can simulate the details of the process better but its operation efficiency is low,so it is not suitable for engineering application.To build an evacuation model suitable for the ship and marine structures,the concept of ground field is firstly introduced to judge the selection range of pedestrian target position,and the adjustment factor is proposed to optimize the calculation method of field value,which solve the problem of unreasonable ground field distribution in the case of complex building structures.Secondly,a model of "social forces" in the neighborhood of cellular automata is proposed based on the above type of cellular automata,and pedestrian travel probability is constructed to quantify the effect of social forces,so as to solve the problem that the traditional cellular automata model could not describe the micro-force effect,which led to low simulation degree.And then,according to the model verification method provided by MSC.1/Circ.1533,the evacuation model based on the theory of this paper mentioned above is constructed,and the quantitative and qualitative verification are carried out,which is respectively based on the convection scene in the narrow space of ship personnel,the three-dimensional multi-storey movement scene of ship,and the typical cabin scene.Finally,based on MSC.1/ Circ.1533,the standard of ship personnel parameter attributes is quantitatively assigned,and combined with improved ground field and cellular neighborhood social power,a multi-attribute model for ship evacuation is constructed.Through a series of simulation experiments,it is proved that the model presented in this paper is similar to the social force model in crowd arching phenomenon,"fast is slow" phenomenon and power law distribution law of human flow,and meets the IMO’s 12 test requirements for ship personnel simulation model.The model in this paper shows the effect of continuous movement of pedestrian under the discrete operation model,describes the effects of microscopic forces while maintaining high computational efficiency,which has important significance and reference value for the research of simulation model of ship passenger evacuation.