| Ningxia restricted development ecological zone(key ecological function areas)is located in the central arid zone and the southern Liupan Mountain area.Due to the poor combination of regional natural background and the relatively closed social and cultural influence,the regional development level has been low for a long time.The overall performance is that the regional ecological environment is fragile,the social and economic development is backward,and the incidence of poverty is high.According to the requirements of national main function area planning,key ecological function areas undertake the important task of ensuring national and regional ecological environment security.At the same time,the region is also faced with the practical needs of developing local economy,reducing poverty and improving the overall development level.Therefore,how to coordinate the contradiction between ecological environment protection and regional economic and social development,scientifically deal with the relationship between human and land,and realize the sustainable development of restricted development ecological zone has become the key issue of local development.Based on the analysis framework of regional eco-economic system and regional socio-economic system,this study selected 8 counties(districts)in Ningxia restricted development ecological zone as the research area by using the thermodynamic analysis methods of emergy,extension exergy and ecology exergy,and analyzed the sustainable development ability of eco-economic system,economic and social subsystem and natural ecological subsystem from 2010 to 2019 Evaluation.Research shows:(1)There is a significant difference in the total amount of social and economic system extension exergy between counties in Ningxia restricted development ecological zone from 2010 to 2019,and the agricultural sector and resident sector are the main driving forces for the development of economic departments in all counties.In the past 10 years,except for the overall decrease of the net input of Longde County and Jingyuan County,the net input of other counties increased in fluctuation.The growth rate of the net input exergy of social and economic system was 28.42%in Hongsibao District,49.21%in Yanchi County,31.98%in Tongxin County,2.54%in Xiji County,16.11%in Longde County,5.62%in Jingyuan County,58.55%in Pengyang County and 30.35%in Haiyuan county.(2)From 2010 to 2019,the economic and social subsystems of each county in the study area show labor-intensive characteristics,with relatively low unit labor force exergy and relatively high unit currency exergy,and the endogenous power of system development is weak.The agricultural sector is the majority of labor force exergy and currency exergy in the county economic sectors,and the proportion of industrial sector and service sector is relatively high.The unit labor force exergy in Yanchi county is the highest,which is basically consistent with the national average level.The unit currency exergy in jingyuan county is the lowest,but it is still far higher than that in developed countries.The differences between the two counties are closely related to regional development policies and capital investment.(3)From 2010 to 2019,the ecological efficiency of all departments in the region has significant differences within and between counties.The difference of ecological efficiency among different departments in Pengyang County is relatively small,while that among other counties is relatively large.The overall ecological efficiency of Hongsipu district and Yanchi county is relatively high,while that of Longde County and Haiyuan county is relatively low,and that of other counties is medium.The overall ecological efficiency of each county changed significantly with time,and increased significantly except Haiyuan county.The overall ecological efficiency of Yanchi County was the highest,followed by Hongsipu District,and Longde County was the lowest.(4)The total energy value at the input end of eco-economic system in all counties increased slightly except Jingyuan County,and increased year by year in Pengyang County.The emergy input of the whole region and counties is mainly renewable resources,and the development of eco economic system is at a low level.In the past 10 years,the total amount of ecological exergy marshes in the region has decreased from 5.86 × 1020 J in 2010 to 5.85 × 1020 J in 2019,with an overall growth rate of-0.25%.The total ecological exergy quantity of Hongsibu district and Jingyuan County decreased year by year,while that of Haiyuan county increased year by year.The total ecological exergy quantity of Yanchi County,Xiji County and Longde County decreased slightly,while that of Tongxin county and Pengyang County changed slightly.The change of total ecological exergy amount is closely related to the change of land use area in each county.(5)In the past 10 years,the self-organization ability of each county in Ningxia restricted development ecological zone changed significantly.Except for Longde County and Jingyuan County,the other counties showed an overall growth trend.Longde County was the highest,Tongxin county was the second,and Yanchi County was the lowest.The increase of self-organization ability index reflects the improvement of resource and energy conversion efficiency of regional economic and social subsystem,which is consistent with the change trend of ecological efficiency of economic and social subsystem.The change of ecological pressure is related to the interaction between the change of ecological exergy quantity of natural ecological subsystem and the dissipative exergy quantity of economic and social subsystem.Only Jingyuan County and Pengyang County are in the stage of low ecological pressure,Haiyuan county is in the stage of low ecological pressure from 2010 to 2012,and other counties are in the stage of high ecological pressure.Among them,Hongsibao district and Longde County are obviously under high ecological pressure.(6)According to the results of the sustainable development stage division model of each county,on the premise of ensuring the sustainable expansion of regional economic development scale,even if the self-organization ability index increases,the regional ecological pressure will also increase.This is closely related to the expansion of the regional economic exergy scale and the regional ecological exergy yield.Therefore,the regional economic and social development must pay the corresponding price.(7)The sustainable development ability index of Pengyang County was the highest,followed by Jingyuan County,and Hongsipu district was the lowest.According to the results of random forest prediction,the sustainable development capacity of each county will be gradually divided into four categories from 2020 to 2024,and the phenomenon of "agglomeration" will appear.The similarlity of regional natural ecological conditions and socio-economic conditions and their coupling determines the occurrence of this "agglomeration" phenomenon. |
