Based On The Improvement Of Cream’s Urban Rail Transit Accident Cause Analysis

With the rapid development of urban rail transit,people pay more attention to many safety risks related to its characteristics of closed operation,small space,concentrated passenger flow and emergency evacuation.Human insecurity is the most direct factor leading to the occurrence of urban rail traffic accidents,so it is necessary to analyze human reliability.Through a large number of study literature,this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the existing human reliability analysis method,selects the cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)with more complex cognitive function and more accurate calculation of human error probability,first uses CREAM traceability method,constructs the accident traceability table of urban rail transit system,and analyzes the human error in urban rail transit accident in detail through the actual case.Then it analyzes the basic law and the extension method in the quantitative analysis of this method in detail,and points out the shortcomings of the traditional CREAM.Secondly,according to the shortcomings of the traditional CREAM,this paper puts forward different ways to improve the Basic Law and the Expansion Law.In the improvement of the Basic Law,this paper refines the factors affecting the CPC factor,and converts the cognitive function failure caused by the internal factors of human beings into the further deterioration of the situational environment,then fuzzs the score of the CPC factor by using the triangular membership function,puts forward the degree of mutual influence and influence between the CPC factors,calculates the confidence of the four control modes in each IF-THEN rule according to the evidence reasoning,and after obtaining the confidence degree,The CPC factor and the control mode with confidence are transformed into Bayesian network,and the more accurate human error probability formula is obtained by combining the full probability formula.In the improvement of the expansion method,in the revision of the basic value of the probability of cognitive failure,this paper puts forward the environmental impact factor,that is,the more the level of CPC factor is improved,the more positive the impact on human reliability.Finally,the improved CREAM method is applied in the field of urban rail transit,and the rationalization of urban rail transit system to improve human-caused reliability is put into practice.