Study On The Impact Of Environmental Regulation Policy On Pork Price

Since the "Huangpu River Drifting Pig" event in 2013,the pollution problem brought by livestock and poultry breeding has entered people’s field of vision."The Regulations on Prevention and Control of Livestock and Poultry Scale Pollution" proposes the division of livestock and poultry banned areas.In April 2015,the State launched the "Water Pollution Prevention And Control Plan",requiring It is required to close the farms and breeding communities in the banned areas before the end of 2017.In July 2015,Guangdong Province implemented the "Regulations on Environmental Protection of Guangdong Province" to rectify the environmental pollution problems in Guangdong and promote the management and relocation of large-scale livestock and poultry breeding.The implementation of this series of environmental regulation policies has resulted in a reduction in the production of pigs in Guangdong Province,and the market price of live pigs is bound to undergo major changes.Between 2014 and 2015,pork prices were in a downturn;pork prices rose slowly during the volatility from the second half of 2015,reaching a high value of 33.22 yuan a kilo in June 2016.It reached a steady state in May 2017 and floated at a value of 26.5 yuan a kilo.It can be seen that pork prices began to rise within a few months after the implementation of the environmental regulation policy.In the second half of 2015,pork prices in Guangdong Province experienced a rising cycle.Under the influence of the Guangdong Provincial Environmental Protection Regulations in July 2015,the supply of pigs in Guangdong was reduced and pork prices began to rise.Environmental regulation policies have had a certain impact on pork prices.To analyze the direct impact of environmental regulation policies on pork prices,this article takes Guangdong Province as an example,using the pork and beef price data from 2010 to 2018.Based on the relative price of a substitute method,the breakpoint and duration of the impact of environmental regulation policies on pork prices were analyzed,and the forecast error in the log relative price was estimated.The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between pork and alternative beef prices before the implementation of environmental regulation policies.The period of time when environmental regulation takes effect is from August 2015 to March 2017.During this period,pork prices increased by an average of 19.18%,and the relative price increased by 33.7%after the implementation of the environmental regulation policy.This shows that after the implementation of the "Water Pollution Prevention Plan" in April 2015 and the "Guangdong Province Environmental Protection Regulations" in July 2015,the price impact began to appear,and lasted for 20 months.The implementation of environmental regulation policies and the strictness of standards have led to a decline in the supply of pigs,which eventually led to an increase in pork prices.In order to alleviate the impact of environmental regulation policies on pork prices,the government needs to improve existing environmental regulation policies,strengthen the adaptation of pig farmers to environmental regulations,and reduce the impact of environmental regulations on pork price fluctuations.