| Some environmental issues like climate change and greenhouse effect have attracted the attention of all countries since the 20th century.Meanwhile,how to deal with them has become an important issue for the whole world.Traditional agriculture,which is a kind of high-carbon agriculture,emits more than 30%of greenhouse gases produced by the activities of human beings.Some environmental intensive agricultural production methods such as "low-carbon agriculture" and "green agriculture" have come into being in order to reduce the carbon emission of agriculture and realize sustainable development.They are aimed at reducing the greenhouse gases released by agricultural production as well as ensuring the efficiency of agricultural production.They can help achieve the agricultural production of maintaining the growth while reducing the emission of greenhouse gases,which is also the ultimate goal of agricultural production in China.China ’s agricultural production is based on the traditional production mode of "high input,high pollution and low output".At the same time,agricultural production has a remarkable path-dependence on the high-carbon complex of technology,industry and system because of the self-reinforcement of high-carbon agricultural production technology,system and industrial structure.It makes the agricultural development fall into the situation of carbon lock-in,causing the lack of innovation in the development of low-carbon technology.It has negative effects on the transformation of low-carbon agriculture and environmental protection.Therefore,strengthening the temporal and spatial evaluation and analysis of agricultural carbon lock has become one of the important ways to speed up the transition to low-carbon agricultureBased on above analyses,this thesis systematically analyzes the problems of carbon lock-in and carbon unlock in China’s agriculture with the help of some analysis methods such as low-carbon economy,decoupling theory and spatial econometrics.The carbon emission of China’s agriculture from 2000 to 2018 was estimated,and the carbon locking effect of agriculture was quantified and analyzed from the characteristics of temporal and spatial differences.The thesis gets the following main conclusions through systematic analysis:Firstly,although China’s agricultural carbon emissions showed an overall significant upward trend from 2000 to 2018,The average annual growth rate was 1.90%.They began to show a negative growth since 2015,with obvious differences between provinces.Both the total and average carbon emissions showed a gradient trend of "priority development area>moderate development area>protective development area".Chemical fertilizer is the largest source of agricultural carbon emissions,and the proportion was more than 50%during the investigation period.Secondly,the present condition of China’s agricultural carbon lock-in has the characteristics of "steady progress",but it has not reached the optimal condition of unlocking.What’s more,China’s agricultural production is still locked in high-carbon production to some extent.The performance of the agricultural carbon lock-in in three agricultural sustainable development areas conforms to the characteristics of regional division.Meanwhile,the differences of agricultural carbon lock-in effect between provinces in China have decreased.Thirdly,China’s agricultural carbon lock-in shows an obvious autocorrelation in terms of the space of provinces.From 2000 to 2018,the global Moran’s I value of agricultural carbon locking in China’s provincial regions remained between[0.023,0.326],and most of it was significant.The spatial clustering feature of province region is obvious and strengthened,and the pattern of 1-1 clustering is expanded gradually.At the same time,the formation of the effect of agricultural carbon lock-in in the adjacent provinces is in a two-way promotion mechanism.Only the rural human capital stock has a significant impact on the national and regional levels.There is a significant difference between the priority development area,the moderate development area and the whole country.Finally,this thesis puts forward some suggestions to promote the low-carbon development of agriculture and realize the comprehensive carbon unlock of agriculture from the perspective of technology,industry and system by taking into account the differences between regions on the basis of empirical analysis. |
