Forecast Of China's Power Development And Analysis Of Coal Power Overcapacity

The resource endowment based on coal indicates that China's electricity supply and consumption structure rely highly on coal power.However,during the 13 th FYP period,the upsurge of coal power construction across the country has led to serious overcapacity problems.Meanwhile,increasingly stringent carbon emission reduction targets also require speeding up the withdrawal of coal power,thereby promoting the complete decarbonization of the power system.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out research on power development forecast and coal power overcapacity analysis,which can help the Chinese government to formulate reasonable development targets for the 14 th FYP.This paper first predicted the development trend of China's power system.From the demand side,the gray system model,trend analysis method and MV combination model were used to forecast China's electricity demand;From the supply side,technology diffusion and learning curve models were used to predict the development potential of wind power and photovoltaic,and further,Markov model was used to predict power generation structure.Subsequently,this paper built the reasonable capacity evaluation model of coal power based on electricity and power balance to analyze China's coal power overcapacity in 2019 and determine the reasonable capacity for 2025,and further analyze the impact of electricity demand,new energy scale and capacity factor of photoelectric and wind power on the reasonable coal power capacity in each region in 2025.Forecasts for power development shows that China's average annual growth rate of electricity consumption will reach 3.75% during the 14 th FYP,and it will drop to 2.86%during the 15 th FYP;the electricity consumption will reach 15,0423 TWh by 2060,and then it will be close to saturation.The installed potential of wind power and photovoltaic in 2025 will reach 435.51 and 451.63 GW,respectively,and that in 2060 will exceed 3000 GW.Under the constraints of climate change targets,by 2060,China's installed demand of hydropower and nuclear power will be 581 and 221 GW,respectively;wind power and photovoltaic installed demand will be 2722 and 2546 GW,respectively.The analysis of coal power overcapacity shows that,in 2019,each region of China has different degrees of overcapacity,and the situation in the North,South and Northwest China was particularly serious.The overall installed reserve margin of China's power grid was27.89%,which is much higher than the reasonable value of 12%-15%.And the coal power overcapacity reached 170 GW,accounting for 16.27% of the total coal power installed capacity.In the basic scenario,the China's reasonable coal power capacity in 2025 is 982 GW.Sensitivity analysis based on electricity demand,new energy scale,and capacity factor of photoelectric and wind power showed that the upper and lower limits of the reasonable coal power capacity in 2025 are 1101 and 833 GW,respectively.Comprehensive consideration the existing stock,the scale of construction,and the speed of elimination,a reasonable goal for China's installed capacity of coal power by 2025 is 1000-1050 GW;under this development path,during the14 th FYP,China needs to resolve 100 GW of coal power stock and control the scale of newly commissioned coal power within 80 GW.