According to China’s green development strategy,by 2025,it is necessary to comprehensively establish a green policy standard system in the field of express packaging,so as to achieve the overall strategic goal of coordinating resources,rational allocation and sustainable development.In this paper,through the combination of macro-analysis and micro-investigation,firstly,the NAR neural network time series prediction method is used to predict the development trend of China’s express business volume,which verifies the urgency and necessity of standardized institutionalization of express packaging recycling.Based on 795 questionnaires,this paper analyzes the basic status quo,recycling behavior,recycling willingness,cognition and importance from the user level,studies the relationship between the behavior and willingness of college students with high environmental awareness,and further explores the key factors affecting recycling behavior through SPSS cross-linked list and correlation analysis.The government-enterprise game analysis based on Stackelberg theory is established,and the game theory is used as a tool to study the quantitative model.The incentive and coordination mechanism of all stakeholders is analyzed,which expands the research scope and method of express packaging recycling and changes qualitative research into quantitative research.Netlogo multi-agent model was introduced.Through model building,agent routine design,simulation model building,case simulation and analysis,it was found that the recycling effect of express packaging changed suddenly when the proportion of recycling population was about 60%.At last,starting from the basis and standard of framework formulation,it provides reference for industry benchmark,coverage,constraint supervision and operation synergy principle.From positive feedback,negative feedback and synergy effect,it proves that the express packaging recycling mechanism based on multi-party participation can achieve the predetermined recycling goal with the lowest cost and the highest efficiency,which provides a theoretical model and method for the optimal allocation of express packaging recycling resources in China. |