Evaluation Model And Application Of Overseas Oil And Gas Development Area Selection

In recent years,China ’s dependence on foreign oil and gas has continued to rise.With the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices,the uncertainty of the effectiveness of domestic oil companies ’overseas oil and gas development has increased,and the importance of evaluation of development constituencies has become increasingly prominent.Based on the value and risk evaluation,an evaluation model that is more suitable for overseas oil and gas development and selection areas will be established,and screening of favorable blocks will help domestic oil companies to avoid risks,improve efficiency,help protect China’s energy security,and promote industrial balance and healthy development.Firstly,this article aims at overseas conventional conventional oil and gas blocks to be developed,and selects a total of 17 evaluation indicators from the perspectives of economy,risk,and strategy to build a area selection evaluation index system;Secondly,based on the discounted cash flow method,the future cash flow of overseas oil and gas block development is estimated,and statistical indicators such as variance and coefficient of variation are used to quantify various risks,and the strategic value is evaluated in combination with geological resource parameters,at the end,a quantitative method for each indicator in the system was formed;Then,based on the utility theory,an overseas oil and gas development area selection evaluation model is established,and the evaluation index system is converted into an initial decision matrix.A weighted utility matrix is established by defining a utility function and combining subjective and objective weighting methods;Finally,the vector projection method is used to calculate the closeness between each target block and the ideal block,a method of prioritizing investment for overseas oil and gas development blocks was established based on the degree of proximity.The 10 overseas oil and gas sample blocks of A Petroleum Company were selected for model application.The scenario analysis was performed on the preference adjustment factor matrix in the utility function,and the selection priorities of the example blocks were evaluated and ranked.